← OU_Bracket

OU_Bracket — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 1 warnGuarded: WARN · 1 warnDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 1 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.01% -1.68% -24.84% -60.23% -66.05%
CAGR 0.08% -18.64% -96.90% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -23.56% -46.72% -82.12% -87.94%
Volatility (ann.) 0.20% 1.14% 5.79% 15.10% 17.30%
Sharpe 0.37 -18.05 -59.95 -74.22 -75.91
Sortino 0.43 -9.04 -40.94 -60.58 -66.36
Calmar 1.45 -11.09 -3.90 -1.66 -1.51
Omega 1.06 0.47 0.44 0.52 0.55
Max drawdown 0.05% 1.68% 24.84% 60.25% 66.05%
Ulcer index 0.0003 0.0101 0.1463 0.3831 0.4168
Drawdown episodes 2 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 26.8 29.6 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor 0.12 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.030% -0.161% -1.515% -4.574% -5.700%
VaR 99% -0.031% -0.167% -1.837% -5.898% -6.833%
CVaR 95% -0.030% -0.164% -1.676% -5.236% -6.267%
Skew 1.37 -0.52 -0.07 -0.46 -0.53
Excess kurtosis 5.73 -0.37 -0.79 0.38 0.90
Best day 0.05% 0.03% -0.26% -0.99% -0.86%
Worst day -0.03% -0.17% -1.84% -5.90% -6.83%
Positive days 15 2 0 0 0
Negative days 13 26 30 30 30
Round trips 8 95 750 1,374 1,504
Winning / losing trades 2 / 6 13 / 82 124 / 626 258 / 1,116 238 / 1,266
Trades per day 0.27 3.17 25.00 45.80 50.13
Win rate 25.00% 13.68% 16.53% 18.78% 15.82%
Profit factor 1.08 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13
Payoff ratio 3.24 1.02 0.76 0.62 0.69
Expectancy 0.0077 -0.1770 -0.3312 -0.4384 -0.4392
Average win 0.4166 0.2486 0.3570 0.3939 0.4144
Average loss 0.1286 0.2445 0.4675 0.6308 0.5997
Average trade 0.0077 -0.1770 -0.3312 -0.4384 -0.4392
Max win streak 1 1 5 6 10
Max loss streak 5 25 74 107 144
Time in market 0.05% 1.09% 11.92% 27.13% 34.18%
Turnover 0.00 0.02 0.34 0.81 0.86
Realised P&L 0.06 -16.81 -248.37 -602.35 -660.55
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.45 9.82 161.16 397.31 439.14
Fee drag 0.05% 0.98% 16.12% 39.73% 43.91%
Final equity 1000.06 983.19 751.63 397.65 339.45

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.04% -0.22% -7.40% -19.59% -24.65%
CAGR -0.51% -2.68% -60.76% -92.95% -96.81%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.90% -22.08% -29.26% -41.45% -46.51%
Volatility (ann.) 0.09% 1.12% 5.58% 13.88% 15.76%
Sharpe -5.94 -2.43 -16.73 -19.04 -21.78
Sortino -0.13 -1.69 -13.17 -17.09 -19.66
Calmar -12.14 -8.17 -8.15 -4.69 -3.92
Omega 0.04 0.90 0.71 0.76 0.76
Max drawdown 0.04% 0.33% 7.45% 19.80% 24.72%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0015 0.0407 0.1140 0.1450
Drawdown episodes 1 2 1 2 1
Longest underwater (days) 26.7 29.4 29.7 29.7 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -0.68 -0.99 -0.99 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.009% -0.074% -0.676% -1.773% -2.187%
VaR 99% -0.033% -0.088% -0.862% -1.815% -2.201%
CVaR 95% -0.021% -0.081% -0.769% -1.794% -2.194%
Skew -4.37 -0.51 -0.04 0.02 0.04
Excess kurtosis 18.64 0.07 -0.35 -1.17 -0.96
Best day 0.00% 0.05% 0.39% 0.46% 0.28%
Worst day -0.03% -0.09% -0.86% -1.82% -2.20%
Positive days 0 10 6 5 3
Negative days 2 12 23 24 26
Round trips 2 37 245 428 469
Winning / losing trades 0 / 2 17 / 20 88 / 157 180 / 248 174 / 295
Trades per day 0.07 1.23 8.17 14.27 15.63
Win rate 0.00% 45.95% 35.92% 42.06% 37.10%
Profit factor 0.00 0.69 0.41 0.41 0.35
Payoff ratio 0.00 0.81 0.73 0.56 0.59
Expectancy -0.2084 -0.0603 -0.3020 -0.4576 -0.5256
Average win 0.0000 0.2912 0.5766 0.7510 0.7486
Average loss 0.2084 0.3592 0.7945 1.3348 1.2772
Average trade -0.2084 -0.0603 -0.3020 -0.4576 -0.5256
Max win streak 0 4 6 6 6
Max loss streak 2 7 25 24 24
Time in market 0.05% 1.99% 13.01% 26.98% 33.90%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.18 0.47 0.51
Realised P&L -0.42 -2.23 -74.00 -195.86 -246.52
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fees paid 0.10 3.89 56.87 169.00 190.09
Fee drag 0.01% 0.39% 5.69% 16.90% 19.01%
Final equity 999.58 997.77 926.00 804.14 753.48

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% -0.05% -4.26% -13.38% -14.54%
CAGR 0.00% -0.65% -41.13% -82.58% -85.23%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.88% -26.09% -35.21% -36.37%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 1.09% 5.52% 13.41% 16.44%
Sharpe 0.00 -0.59 -9.58 -12.97 -11.55
Sortino 0.00 -0.38 -7.74 -11.65 -10.65
Calmar 0.00 -2.21 -9.47 -6.08 -5.78
Omega 0.00 0.96 0.79 0.79 0.82
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.29% 4.34% 13.59% 14.75%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0015 0.0220 0.0681 0.0740
Drawdown episodes 0 35 1 1 2
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 16.7 29.7 29.7 29.7
Recovery factor 0.00 -0.18 -0.98 -0.98 -0.99
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.081% -0.537% -1.392% -1.260%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.106% -0.624% -1.532% -1.480%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.093% -0.580% -1.462% -1.370%
Skew 0.00 0.75 0.33 0.18 0.39
Excess kurtosis 0.00 2.61 -0.24 -0.53 -0.43
Best day 0.00% 0.16% 0.40% 0.75% 0.65%
Worst day 0.00% -0.11% -0.62% -1.53% -1.48%
Positive days 0 7 7 5 4
Negative days 0 10 23 25 26
Round trips 0 18 144 236 262
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 8 / 10 58 / 86 102 / 134 120 / 142
Trades per day 0.00 0.60 4.80 7.87 8.73
Win rate 0.00% 44.44% 40.28% 43.22% 45.80%
Profit factor 0.00 0.90 0.52 0.46 0.46
Payoff ratio 0.00 1.13 0.76 0.60 0.54
Expectancy 0.0000 -0.0296 -0.2960 -0.5670 -0.5551
Average win 0.0000 0.6043 0.7829 1.0975 1.0203
Average loss 0.0000 0.5368 1.0235 1.8340 1.8865
Average trade 0.0000 -0.0296 -0.2960 -0.5670 -0.5551
Max win streak 0 3 5 9 8
Max loss streak 0 3 9 9 8
Time in market 0.00% 1.50% 12.90% 25.74% 31.85%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.13 0.36 0.39
Realised P&L 0.00 -0.53 -42.62 -133.82 -145.44
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 0.00 1.61 33.21 97.36 113.56
Fee drag 0.00% 0.16% 3.32% 9.74% 11.36%
Final equity 1000.00 999.47 957.38 866.18 854.56

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.09% 0.12% 0.06% -0.92% -1.29%
CAGR 1.05% 1.52% 0.73% -10.63% -14.65%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.80% -21.76% -21.82% -22.80% -23.17%
Volatility (ann.) 0.65% 3.45% 10.49% 25.45% 29.20%
Sharpe 1.60 0.45 0.12 -0.31 -0.40
Sortino 1.51 0.43 0.12 -0.29 -0.37
Calmar 6.60 3.12 0.33 -1.88 -2.33
Omega 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.16% 0.49% 2.17% 5.66% 6.28%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0013 0.0064 0.0193 0.0219
Drawdown episodes 77 150 171 155 157
Longest underwater (days) 7.0 3.7 6.5 8.0 8.2
Recovery factor 0.54 0.25 0.03 -0.16 -0.21
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.242% -0.746% -1.523% -1.818%
VaR 99% -0.069% -0.338% -0.855% -1.818% -2.132%
CVaR 95% -0.034% -0.290% -0.801% -1.671% -1.975%
Skew -0.68 -0.43 0.35 0.11 0.14
Excess kurtosis 5.66 0.79 0.79 -0.65 -0.40
Best day 0.05% 0.26% 1.17% 1.97% 2.18%
Worst day -0.07% -0.34% -0.85% -1.82% -2.13%
Positive days 18 19 16 16 16
Negative days 10 11 14 14 14
Round trips 5 39 65 81 86
Winning / losing trades 5 / 0 39 / 0 65 / 0 81 / 0 86 / 0
Trades per day 0.17 1.30 2.17 2.70 2.87
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.1714 0.0762 0.2582 0.4783 0.4715
Average win 0.1714 0.0762 0.2582 0.4783 0.4715
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.1714 0.0762 0.2582 0.4783 0.4715
Max win streak 5 39 65 81 86
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 9.50% 48.22% 86.55% 91.18% 92.66%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.04
Realised P&L 0.86 2.97 16.78 38.75 40.55
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -1.73 -16.19 -47.94 -53.48
Fees paid 0.35 4.18 14.99 36.46 42.00
Fee drag 0.04% 0.42% 1.50% 3.65% 4.20%
Final equity 1000.86 1001.24 1000.59 990.81 987.07

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.65% 1.60% 0.18% 0.47%
CAGR 0.03% 8.17% 21.28% 2.19% 5.84%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.21% -20.26% -21.68% -21.39%
Volatility (ann.) 0.47% 1.67% 8.51% 21.57% 18.41%
Sharpe 0.06 4.70 2.31 0.21 0.40
Sortino 0.06 4.79 2.27 0.20 0.39
Calmar 0.24 37.15 23.41 0.58 1.93
Omega 1.00 1.12 1.02 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.12% 0.22% 0.91% 3.75% 3.02%
Ulcer index 0.0001 0.0002 0.0030 0.0115 0.0119
Drawdown episodes 3 92 166 136 128
Longest underwater (days) 19.0 7.8 3.8 6.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.02 2.94 1.76 0.05 0.15
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.003% -0.412% -1.250% -1.052%
VaR 99% -0.035% -0.059% -0.510% -1.532% -1.596%
CVaR 95% -0.017% -0.031% -0.461% -1.391% -1.324%
Skew 0.33 0.50 0.01 0.29 0.28
Excess kurtosis 10.56 1.26 -0.60 0.06 0.28
Best day 0.04% 0.11% 0.52% 2.02% 1.90%
Worst day -0.03% -0.06% -0.51% -1.53% -1.60%
Positive days 14 26 17 15 14
Negative days 12 3 12 14 15
Round trips 2 33 52 54 43
Winning / losing trades 2 / 0 33 / 0 52 / 0 54 / 0 43 / 0
Trades per day 0.07 1.10 1.73 1.80 1.43
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0117 0.1962 0.3074 0.5717 0.7148
Average win 0.0117 0.1962 0.3074 0.5717 0.7148
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0117 0.1962 0.3074 0.5717 0.7148
Max win streak 2 33 52 54 43
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 4.41% 11.06% 68.72% 84.22% 89.23%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03
Realised P&L 0.02 6.47 15.99 30.87 30.74
Unrealised P&L -0.00 0.00 0.00 -29.09 -26.06
Fees paid 0.10 3.57 11.96 23.94 19.61
Fee drag 0.01% 0.36% 1.20% 2.39% 1.96%
Final equity 1000.02 1006.47 1015.99 1001.78 1004.68

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.42% 2.58% 0.71% 0.92%
CAGR 0.00% 5.21% 36.30% 8.95% 11.72%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.41% -19.25% -21.12% -20.91%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 1.83% 9.26% 19.79% 18.92%
Sharpe 0.00 2.78 3.39 0.53 0.68
Sortino 0.00 2.68 3.46 0.52 0.67
Calmar 0.00 14.56 22.84 2.43 3.89
Omega 0.00 1.08 1.04 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.36% 1.59% 3.68% 3.01%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0004 0.0033 0.0109 0.0119
Drawdown episodes 0 79 210 123 102
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 4.9 2.9 6.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 1.17 1.62 0.19 0.30
VaR 95% 0.000% -0.052% -0.669% -1.235% -1.026%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.107% -0.789% -1.432% -1.532%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.079% -0.729% -1.334% -1.279%
Skew 0.00 0.83 0.28 -0.00 -0.05
Excess kurtosis 0.00 2.85 2.57 0.03 -0.19
Best day 0.00% 0.16% 1.15% 1.84% 1.58%
Worst day 0.00% -0.11% -0.79% -1.43% -1.53%
Positive days 0 22 22 19 17
Negative days 0 5 8 11 13
Round trips 0 14 55 43 38
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 14 / 0 55 / 0 43 / 0 38 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.47 1.83 1.43 1.27
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.2991 0.5333 0.8293 0.9322
Average win 0.0000 0.2991 0.5333 0.8293 0.9322
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.2991 0.5333 0.8293 0.9322
Max win streak 0 14 55 43 38
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 12.11% 57.05% 78.56% 84.05%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.04
Realised P&L 0.00 4.19 29.33 35.66 35.42
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -3.55 -28.59 -26.27
Fees paid 0.00 1.27 13.10 19.59 18.43
Fee drag 0.00% 0.13% 1.31% 1.96% 1.84%
Final equity 1000.00 1004.19 1025.78 1007.07 1009.15

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.