← OU_MeanReversion

OU_MeanReversion — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -17.75% -34.19% -58.40% -87.02% -92.51%
CAGR -90.72% -99.38% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -39.63% -56.07% -80.28% -108.90% -114.39%
Volatility (ann.) 1.45% 3.07% 6.66% 14.70% 16.96%
Sharpe -163.95 -165.83 -160.28 -168.94 -185.90
Sortino -128.35 -130.55 -126.62 -134.39 -147.49
Calmar -5.11 -2.91 -1.71 -1.15 -1.08
Omega 0.20 0.27 0.30 0.30 0.27
Max drawdown 17.75% 34.19% 58.40% 87.02% 92.51%
Ulcer index 0.1024 0.2030 0.3726 0.6190 0.6863
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.820% -1.720% -3.575% -8.213% -10.663%
VaR 99% -0.847% -1.872% -3.651% -8.784% -10.965%
CVaR 95% -0.833% -1.796% -3.613% -8.498% -10.814%
Skew 0.07 -0.09 0.36 0.01 -0.35
Excess kurtosis -1.16 -0.53 -0.50 -0.46 -0.59
Best day -0.46% -0.97% -1.99% -4.68% -6.21%
Worst day -0.85% -1.87% -3.65% -8.78% -10.97%
Positive days 0 0 0 0 0
Negative days 30 30 30 30 30
Round trips 2,423 3,008 3,358 3,762 4,384
Winning / losing trades 122 / 2,301 186 / 2,822 221 / 3,137 279 / 3,483 332 / 4,052
Trades per day 80.77 100.27 111.93 125.40 146.13
Win rate 5.04% 6.18% 6.58% 7.42% 7.57%
Profit factor 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05
Payoff ratio 0.55 0.52 0.53 0.61 0.60
Expectancy -0.0732 -0.1136 -0.1739 -0.2313 -0.2110
Average win 0.0441 0.0650 0.1033 0.1606 0.1446
Average loss 0.0795 0.1254 0.1934 0.2627 0.2402
Average trade -0.0732 -0.1136 -0.1739 -0.2313 -0.2110
Max win streak 3 5 4 4 5
Max loss streak 220 250 277 278 320
Time in market 16.88% 27.34% 34.55% 39.23% 42.30%
Turnover 0.19 0.37 0.63 0.96 1.02
Realised P&L -177.48 -341.85 -583.97 -870.15 -925.12
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 110.27 212.09 356.40 537.56 573.61
Fee drag 11.03% 21.21% 35.64% 53.76% 57.36%
Final equity 822.52 658.15 416.03 129.85 74.88

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -6.19% -12.15% -23.03% -47.55% -57.03%
CAGR -54.02% -79.31% -95.86% -99.96% -100.00%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -28.05% -34.01% -44.89% -69.41% -78.89%
Volatility (ann.) 1.48% 2.95% 6.03% 13.54% 15.12%
Sharpe -52.54 -53.47 -52.79 -57.92 -67.89
Sortino -44.79 -46.82 -46.59 -50.11 -58.00
Calmar -8.73 -6.53 -4.16 -2.10 -1.75
Omega 0.40 0.48 0.51 0.50 0.45
Max drawdown 6.19% 12.15% 23.04% 47.56% 57.05%
Ulcer index 0.0347 0.0691 0.1313 0.2778 0.3497
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.356% -0.692% -1.347% -3.526% -4.339%
VaR 99% -0.443% -0.881% -1.362% -3.641% -4.909%
CVaR 95% -0.400% -0.787% -1.354% -3.583% -4.624%
Skew -0.57 -0.10 0.74 0.42 0.41
Excess kurtosis 1.31 0.69 0.71 0.35 0.18
Best day -0.03% -0.02% 0.04% 0.17% -0.09%
Worst day -0.44% -0.88% -1.36% -3.64% -4.91%
Positive days 0 0 1 1 0
Negative days 29 29 28 28 29
Round trips 835 1,005 1,089 1,229 1,444
Winning / losing trades 145 / 690 187 / 818 219 / 870 267 / 962 298 / 1,146
Trades per day 27.84 33.50 36.30 40.97 48.14
Win rate 17.37% 18.61% 20.11% 21.72% 20.64%
Profit factor 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.18
Payoff ratio 0.59 0.59 0.63 0.63 0.69
Expectancy -0.0741 -0.1209 -0.2115 -0.3869 -0.3949
Average win 0.0603 0.1009 0.1981 0.3749 0.4150
Average loss 0.1023 0.1716 0.3146 0.5983 0.6055
Average trade -0.0741 -0.1209 -0.2115 -0.3869 -0.3949
Max win streak 5 9 8 13 10
Max loss streak 112 83 79 77 98
Time in market 17.02% 26.56% 33.31% 38.01% 41.33%
Turnover 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.68 0.82
Realised P&L -61.85 -121.47 -230.32 -475.51 -570.25
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 -0.01
Fees paid 40.47 81.06 152.51 304.67 360.12
Fee drag 4.05% 8.11% 15.25% 30.47% 36.01%
Final equity 938.15 878.53 769.69 524.52 429.74

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -3.60% -7.40% -13.90% -27.75% -34.96%
CAGR -35.97% -60.77% -83.80% -98.08% -99.47%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -25.43% -29.23% -35.72% -49.57% -56.79%
Volatility (ann.) 1.37% 2.79% 5.64% 12.65% 14.64%
Sharpe -32.46 -33.56 -32.26 -31.20 -35.69
Sortino -28.34 -29.68 -28.58 -28.51 -32.60
Calmar -9.96 -8.20 -6.02 -3.53 -2.84
Omega 0.49 0.56 0.60 0.63 0.59
Max drawdown 3.61% 7.41% 13.92% 27.75% 34.98%
Ulcer index 0.0193 0.0401 0.0769 0.1548 0.2020
Drawdown episodes 1 2 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -0.232% -0.522% -0.963% -1.855% -2.360%
VaR 99% -0.323% -0.565% -1.203% -1.976% -2.785%
CVaR 95% -0.278% -0.544% -1.083% -1.915% -2.572%
Skew -0.68 -0.46 -0.32 0.95 0.95
Excess kurtosis 1.37 0.17 0.18 0.63 0.77
Best day 0.02% -0.01% 0.10% 0.39% 0.69%
Worst day -0.32% -0.57% -1.20% -1.98% -2.78%
Positive days 1 0 1 2 2
Negative days 29 30 29 28 28
Round trips 515 592 658 719 826
Winning / losing trades 125 / 390 154 / 438 184 / 474 230 / 489 252 / 574
Trades per day 17.17 19.73 21.93 23.97 27.53
Win rate 24.27% 26.01% 27.96% 31.99% 30.51%
Profit factor 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.31
Payoff ratio 0.61 0.58 0.64 0.64 0.71
Expectancy -0.0699 -0.1250 -0.2112 -0.3859 -0.4233
Average win 0.0701 0.1219 0.2483 0.5142 0.6240
Average loss 0.1147 0.2119 0.3895 0.8093 0.8830
Average trade -0.0699 -0.1250 -0.2112 -0.3859 -0.4233
Max win streak 4 5 6 8 5
Max loss streak 28 45 48 39 26
Time in market 16.14% 26.27% 32.84% 37.60% 40.86%
Turnover 0.05 0.11 0.23 0.51 0.66
Realised P&L -35.97 -74.02 -138.96 -277.46 -349.63
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 25.33 49.06 96.20 202.78 243.90
Fee drag 2.53% 4.91% 9.62% 20.28% 24.39%
Final equity 964.03 925.98 861.04 722.54 650.37

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.04% 0.02% 0.12% 0.32% 0.41%
CAGR 0.53% 0.19% 1.52% 4.02% 5.14%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.84% -21.87% -21.76% -21.56% -21.47%
Volatility (ann.) 2.95% 5.06% 8.78% 17.58% 17.31%
Sharpe 0.19 0.06 0.22 0.31 0.38
Sortino 0.18 0.06 0.21 0.30 0.36
Calmar 0.98 0.20 0.93 1.28 1.64
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.54% 0.93% 1.62% 3.14% 3.14%
Ulcer index 0.0024 0.0039 0.0069 0.0134 0.0134
Drawdown episodes 144 159 162 163 194
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.10 0.13
VaR 95% -0.197% -0.315% -0.545% -1.091% -1.140%
VaR 99% -0.302% -0.519% -0.908% -1.817% -1.817%
CVaR 95% -0.249% -0.417% -0.727% -1.454% -1.479%
Skew 0.29 0.24 0.29 0.41 0.32
Excess kurtosis 0.77 0.75 0.86 1.17 0.99
Best day 0.36% 0.59% 1.07% 2.29% 2.24%
Worst day -0.30% -0.52% -0.91% -1.82% -1.82%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 15 15 15 15 15
Round trips 102 106 109 104 101
Winning / losing trades 102 / 0 106 / 0 109 / 0 104 / 0 101 / 0
Trades per day 3.40 3.53 3.63 3.47 3.37
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0485 0.0746 0.1364 0.2864 0.3039
Average win 0.0485 0.0746 0.1364 0.2864 0.3039
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0485 0.0746 0.1364 0.2864 0.3039
Max win streak 102 106 109 104 101
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.08% 96.87% 96.46% 95.98% 94.44%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03
Realised P&L 4.94 7.91 14.87 29.78 30.69
Unrealised P&L -4.51 -7.75 -13.63 -26.54 -26.56
Fees paid 5.14 9.17 16.87 32.88 32.16
Fee drag 0.51% 0.92% 1.69% 3.29% 3.22%
Final equity 1000.43 1000.15 1001.24 1003.24 1004.13

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.18% 0.49% 0.77% 1.44% 1.70%
CAGR 2.22% 6.09% 9.79% 18.98% 22.71%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.68% -21.37% -21.09% -20.42% -20.16%
Volatility (ann.) 2.82% 4.77% 8.33% 16.70% 16.63%
Sharpe 0.79 1.26 1.16 1.12 1.31
Sortino 0.77 1.23 1.13 1.10 1.29
Calmar 4.24 6.92 6.36 6.16 8.60
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.52% 0.88% 1.54% 3.08% 2.64%
Ulcer index 0.0022 0.0037 0.0065 0.0128 0.0099
Drawdown episodes 128 155 133 134 137
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 6.6
Recovery factor 0.35 0.55 0.50 0.47 0.64
VaR 95% -0.173% -0.296% -0.521% -1.049% -1.050%
VaR 99% -0.283% -0.485% -0.850% -1.701% -1.703%
CVaR 95% -0.228% -0.391% -0.685% -1.375% -1.377%
Skew 0.23 0.34 0.27 0.17 0.38
Excess kurtosis 0.36 0.46 0.23 0.30 0.94
Best day 0.33% 0.59% 0.98% 1.92% 2.14%
Worst day -0.28% -0.49% -0.85% -1.70% -1.70%
Positive days 15 15 15 15 15
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 85 98 87 80 87
Winning / losing trades 85 / 0 98 / 0 87 / 0 80 / 0 87 / 0
Trades per day 2.83 3.27 2.90 2.67 2.90
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0733 0.1260 0.2402 0.5163 0.3841
Average win 0.0733 0.1260 0.2402 0.5163 0.3841
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0733 0.1260 0.2402 0.5163 0.3841
Max win streak 85 98 87 80 87
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.42% 92.18% 91.78% 90.91% 88.19%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03
Realised P&L 6.23 12.35 20.90 41.30 33.42
Unrealised P&L -4.43 -7.48 -13.20 -26.92 -16.46
Fees paid 4.29 8.50 13.27 25.18 27.34
Fee drag 0.43% 0.85% 1.33% 2.52% 2.73%
Final equity 1001.80 1004.87 1007.70 1014.38 1016.96

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.15% 0.30% 0.32% 0.33% 1.42%
CAGR 1.89% 3.73% 3.91% 4.04% 18.78%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.68% -21.53% -21.51% -21.50% -20.40%
Volatility (ann.) 2.76% 4.71% 8.18% 16.24% 16.01%
Sharpe 0.69 0.80 0.51 0.33 1.16
Sortino 0.69 0.79 0.50 0.32 1.15
Calmar 3.72 4.28 2.57 1.34 7.48
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01
Max drawdown 0.51% 0.87% 1.52% 3.01% 2.51%
Ulcer index 0.0021 0.0035 0.0062 0.0120 0.0092
Drawdown episodes 97 101 102 106 147
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 6.6
Recovery factor 0.30 0.35 0.21 0.11 0.57
VaR 95% -0.170% -0.289% -0.508% -1.024% -1.024%
VaR 99% -0.290% -0.497% -0.869% -1.692% -1.649%
CVaR 95% -0.230% -0.393% -0.688% -1.358% -1.337%
Skew 0.28 0.26 0.23 0.18 0.12
Excess kurtosis 1.13 1.03 1.08 1.26 1.38
Best day 0.36% 0.58% 0.99% 1.96% 1.86%
Worst day -0.29% -0.50% -0.87% -1.69% -1.65%
Positive days 18 18 18 17 18
Negative days 12 12 12 13 12
Round trips 60 66 64 60 79
Winning / losing trades 60 / 0 66 / 0 64 / 0 60 / 0 79 / 0
Trades per day 2.00 2.20 2.13 2.00 2.63
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0976 0.1582 0.2537 0.4896 0.3827
Average win 0.0976 0.1582 0.2537 0.4896 0.3827
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0976 0.1582 0.2537 0.4896 0.3827
Max win streak 60 66 64 60 79
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 91.95% 90.94% 89.94% 88.42% 82.32%
Turnover 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03
Realised P&L 5.86 10.44 16.24 29.38 30.24
Unrealised P&L -4.32 -7.43 -13.08 -26.12 -15.99
Fees paid 3.04 5.73 9.91 18.39 24.81
Fee drag 0.30% 0.57% 0.99% 1.84% 2.48%
Final equity 1001.54 1003.01 1003.16 1003.26 1014.25

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.