← PPO_Trend

PPO_Trend — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -2.34% -3.92% -9.64% -15.90% -16.93%
CAGR -25.07% -38.56% -70.85% -87.84% -89.53%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -24.23% -25.81% -31.52% -37.78% -38.81%
Volatility (ann.) 4.10% 7.49% 13.46% 16.89% 18.39%
Sharpe -7.02 -6.47 -9.09 -12.39 -12.18
Sortino -6.14 -6.71 -9.69 -13.33 -13.13
Calmar -8.06 -7.48 -6.32 -5.11 -4.82
Omega 0.83 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.83
Max drawdown 3.11% 5.15% 11.21% 17.21% 18.58%
Ulcer index 0.0174 0.0271 0.0580 0.0873 0.0943
Drawdown episodes 3 4 3 2 3
Longest underwater (days) 23.4 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.75 -0.76 -0.86 -0.92 -0.91
VaR 95% -0.199% -0.364% -0.992% -1.584% -1.613%
VaR 99% -0.205% -0.425% -1.016% -1.622% -1.840%
CVaR 95% -0.202% -0.395% -1.004% -1.603% -1.727%
Skew 3.33 4.09 3.61 3.26 3.22
Excess kurtosis 12.46 17.36 14.62 12.55 12.14
Best day 0.64% 2.05% 3.57% 4.30% 4.67%
Worst day -0.20% -0.43% -1.02% -1.62% -1.84%
Positive days 3 3 5 4 4
Negative days 27 27 25 26 26
Round trips 307 307 307 307 307
Winning / losing trades 25 / 282 28 / 279 39 / 268 46 / 261 46 / 261
Trades per day 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23
Win rate 8.14% 9.12% 12.70% 14.98% 14.98%
Profit factor 0.47 0.55 0.53 0.50 0.51
Payoff ratio 5.32 5.50 3.64 2.84 2.87
Expectancy -0.0764 -0.1278 -0.3139 -0.5180 -0.5515
Average win 0.8379 1.7251 2.7823 3.4674 3.7754
Average loss 0.1574 0.3138 0.7644 1.2204 1.3141
Average trade -0.0764 -0.1278 -0.3139 -0.5180 -0.5515
Max win streak 3 3 3 3 3
Max loss streak 55 40 24 19 19
Time in market 9.32% 10.47% 10.91% 11.07% 11.09%
Turnover 0.07 0.14 0.31 0.48 0.52
Realised P&L -23.44 -39.25 -96.36 -159.03 -169.31
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 21.58 41.07 87.61 128.28 138.25
Fee drag 2.16% 4.11% 8.76% 12.83% 13.82%
Final equity 976.56 960.75 903.64 840.97 830.69

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.43% 2.01% 2.44% 2.72% 3.32%
CAGR -5.12% 27.47% 34.09% 38.56% 48.85%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -22.29% -19.85% -19.42% -19.14% -18.54%
Volatility (ann.) 2.63% 6.86% 12.26% 15.37% 16.63%
Sharpe -1.99 3.57 2.45 2.20 2.47
Sortino -1.49 3.67 2.68 2.47 2.79
Calmar -3.57 8.40 5.19 4.96 5.96
Omega 0.94 1.12 1.07 1.05 1.06
Max drawdown 1.43% 3.27% 6.57% 7.78% 8.19%
Ulcer index 0.0084 0.0201 0.0376 0.0411 0.0428
Drawdown episodes 11 21 25 27 27
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.30 0.62 0.37 0.35 0.41
VaR 95% -0.100% -0.249% -0.538% -0.687% -0.721%
VaR 99% -0.108% -0.476% -0.545% -0.702% -0.752%
CVaR 95% -0.104% -0.362% -0.542% -0.694% -0.736%
Skew 4.32 3.69 3.41 3.08 3.07
Excess kurtosis 18.74 13.50 11.22 9.33 9.21
Best day 0.78% 3.38% 5.32% 5.94% 6.43%
Worst day -0.11% -0.48% -0.55% -0.70% -0.75%
Positive days 3 3 5 4 4
Negative days 25 25 24 25 25
Round trips 99 99 99 99 99
Winning / losing trades 14 / 85 14 / 85 11 / 88 16 / 83 17 / 82
Trades per day 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
Win rate 14.14% 14.14% 11.11% 16.16% 17.17%
Profit factor 0.73 1.60 1.28 1.21 1.24
Payoff ratio 4.43 9.70 10.25 6.28 5.99
Expectancy -0.0436 0.2035 0.2465 0.2744 0.3357
Average win 0.8345 3.8451 10.1094 9.7576 10.0570
Average loss 0.1882 0.3963 0.9864 1.5536 1.6798
Average trade -0.0436 0.2035 0.2465 0.2744 0.3357
Max win streak 3 4 2 4 4
Max loss streak 30 34 34 19 19
Time in market 10.50% 11.51% 11.67% 11.67% 11.67%
Turnover 0.03 0.09 0.20 0.29 0.31
Realised P&L -4.31 20.15 24.40 27.17 33.23
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 6.75 13.33 31.64 47.52 51.50
Fee drag 0.68% 1.33% 3.16% 4.75% 5.15%
Final equity 995.69 1020.15 1024.40 1027.17 1033.23

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.37% -0.82% -1.95% -3.10% -3.90%
CAGR -4.39% -9.56% -21.28% -31.86% -38.36%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.20% -22.65% -23.78% -24.93% -25.73%
Volatility (ann.) 2.51% 5.28% 11.10% 14.46% 16.05%
Sharpe -1.78 -1.88 -2.10 -2.58 -2.93
Sortino -1.51 -1.72 -2.09 -2.57 -2.84
Calmar -3.32 -3.63 -3.37 -3.51 -3.78
Omega 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90
Max drawdown 1.32% 2.63% 6.32% 9.08% 10.14%
Ulcer index 0.0086 0.0171 0.0388 0.0545 0.0603
Drawdown episodes 11 11 10 13 13
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.28 -0.31 -0.31 -0.34 -0.38
VaR 95% -0.127% -0.217% -0.513% -0.938% -1.148%
VaR 99% -0.237% -0.488% -0.551% -1.099% -1.429%
CVaR 95% -0.182% -0.353% -0.532% -1.018% -1.288%
Skew 4.24 4.23 4.44 4.25 4.18
Excess kurtosis 19.09 19.09 19.98 18.85 18.57
Best day 0.84% 1.66% 3.67% 5.29% 5.74%
Worst day -0.24% -0.49% -0.55% -1.10% -1.43%
Positive days 4 4 5 6 6
Negative days 25 26 25 24 24
Round trips 57 57 57 57 57
Winning / losing trades 6 / 51 6 / 51 4 / 53 8 / 49 8 / 49
Trades per day 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Win rate 10.53% 10.53% 7.02% 14.04% 14.04%
Profit factor 0.67 0.63 0.68 0.68 0.65
Payoff ratio 5.65 5.32 9.07 4.16 3.96
Expectancy -0.0646 -0.1443 -0.3417 -0.5446 -0.6841
Average win 1.2183 2.2949 10.5791 8.2048 8.8977
Average loss 0.2155 0.4312 1.1659 1.9731 2.2485
Average trade -0.0646 -0.1443 -0.3417 -0.5446 -0.6841
Max win streak 3 3 1 3 3
Max loss streak 28 28 28 21 21
Time in market 8.69% 9.12% 9.22% 9.22% 9.22%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.16 0.18
Realised P&L -3.68 -8.22 -19.47 -31.04 -38.99
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 3.60 6.70 15.90 25.56 27.96
Fee drag 0.36% 0.67% 1.59% 2.56% 2.80%
Final equity 996.32 991.78 980.53 968.96 961.01

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.12% 2.07% 2.55% 5.37% 5.88%
CAGR 14.52% 28.24% 35.89% 89.04% 100.48%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.76% -19.82% -19.33% -16.51% -16.00%
Volatility (ann.) 5.76% 10.51% 26.29% 33.00% 35.71%
Sharpe 2.38 2.42 1.30 2.09 2.13
Sortino 2.56 2.54 1.28 2.06 2.09
Calmar 12.11 11.16 5.84 13.86 14.45
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 1.20% 2.53% 6.14% 6.42% 6.95%
Ulcer index 0.0066 0.0138 0.0256 0.0268 0.0289
Drawdown episodes 18 19 39 47 48
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 13.3 8.4 8.4
Recovery factor 0.93 0.82 0.42 0.84 0.85
VaR 95% -0.355% -0.737% -1.834% -1.992% -2.164%
VaR 99% -0.440% -0.914% -2.255% -2.417% -2.624%
CVaR 95% -0.398% -0.826% -2.044% -2.205% -2.394%
Skew 2.30 2.07 0.83 0.96 0.93
Excess kurtosis 7.90 6.94 1.65 1.53 1.35
Best day 1.22% 2.27% 3.86% 4.84% 5.20%
Worst day -0.44% -0.91% -2.25% -2.42% -2.62%
Positive days 16 16 15 15 15
Negative days 14 14 15 15 15
Round trips 32 32 30 34 34
Winning / losing trades 32 / 0 32 / 0 30 / 0 34 / 0 34 / 0
Trades per day 1.07 1.07 1.00 1.13 1.13
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.5689 1.0810 2.5466 3.2133 3.5187
Average win 0.5689 1.0810 2.5466 3.2133 3.5187
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.5689 1.0810 2.5466 3.2133 3.5187
Max win streak 32 32 30 34 34
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 94.41% 94.47% 94.32% 93.56% 93.61%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.11 0.12
Realised P&L 18.20 34.59 76.40 109.25 119.64
Unrealised P&L -7.00 -13.94 -50.87 -55.52 -60.80
Fees paid 3.28 6.50 14.23 19.79 21.45
Fee drag 0.33% 0.65% 1.42% 1.98% 2.15%
Final equity 1011.21 1020.65 1025.53 1053.73 1058.83

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 3.09% 5.46% 12.03% 15.63% 17.25%
CAGR 44.86% 90.93% 298.54% 485.62% 593.31%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -18.77% -16.40% -9.83% -6.23% -4.61%
Volatility (ann.) 4.84% 10.09% 19.26% 25.83% 27.61%
Sharpe 7.67 6.46 7.28 6.97 7.15
Sortino 8.64 6.90 7.69 7.30 7.51
Calmar 47.80 33.27 60.77 83.31 93.67
Omega 1.09 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.07
Max drawdown 0.94% 2.73% 4.91% 5.83% 6.33%
Ulcer index 0.0050 0.0133 0.0188 0.0239 0.0253
Drawdown episodes 39 39 45 58 57
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 15.7 15.7 15.7
Recovery factor 3.29 2.00 2.45 2.68 2.72
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.720% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.424% -1.172% -2.551% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.342% -0.946% -2.068% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 3.00 2.17 1.56 1.40 1.39
Excess kurtosis 9.77 5.67 3.02 2.28 2.25
Best day 2.00% 3.39% 5.53% 6.78% 7.31%
Worst day -0.42% -1.17% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 15 16 15 15
Negative days 14 14 13 14 14
Round trips 24 22 22 23 23
Winning / losing trades 24 / 0 22 / 0 22 / 0 23 / 0 23 / 0
Trades per day 0.80 0.73 0.73 0.77 0.77
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 1.4943 2.8762 6.2083 8.2768 8.9999
Average win 1.4943 2.8762 6.2083 8.2768 8.9999
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 1.4943 2.8762 6.2083 8.2768 8.9999
Max win streak 24 22 22 23 23
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 86.09% 90.65% 86.86% 85.94% 85.92%
Turnover 0.04 0.06 0.14 0.19 0.21
Realised P&L 35.86 63.28 136.58 190.37 207.00
Unrealised P&L -4.93 -8.68 -16.24 -34.02 -34.50
Fees paid 2.54 4.62 10.98 14.25 15.56
Fee drag 0.25% 0.46% 1.10% 1.42% 1.56%
Final equity 1030.93 1054.59 1120.34 1156.34 1172.50

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.57% 1.03% 2.97% 3.96% 4.26%
CAGR 7.12% 13.32% 42.70% 60.40% 66.09%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.26% -20.80% -18.86% -17.87% -17.57%
Volatility (ann.) 3.57% 6.86% 19.25% 27.92% 30.60%
Sharpe 1.95 1.86 1.94 1.83 1.81
Sortino 1.91 1.81 1.92 1.81 1.79
Calmar 9.14 8.88 11.15 9.82 9.90
Omega 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.78% 1.50% 3.83% 6.15% 6.68%
Ulcer index 0.0045 0.0090 0.0200 0.0280 0.0305
Drawdown episodes 20 20 18 20 22
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 15.7 15.7
Recovery factor 0.73 0.69 0.77 0.64 0.64
VaR 95% -0.168% -0.289% -1.246% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.289% -0.496% -1.735% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.229% -0.392% -1.491% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew 2.57 2.90 1.52 1.22 1.21
Excess kurtosis 8.78 10.46 3.67 2.80 2.75
Best day 0.84% 1.66% 3.73% 5.29% 5.74%
Worst day -0.29% -0.50% -1.74% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 15 14 15 15 15
Negative days 15 16 15 15 15
Round trips 15 15 14 16 16
Winning / losing trades 15 / 0 15 / 0 14 / 0 16 / 0 16 / 0
Trades per day 0.50 0.50 0.47 0.53 0.53
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.6495 1.1577 3.9785 5.5447 6.0171
Average win 0.6495 1.1577 3.9785 5.5447 6.0171
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.6495 1.1577 3.9785 5.5447 6.0171
Max win streak 15 15 14 16 16
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 79.16% 79.17% 79.20% 78.78% 78.68%
Turnover 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.10
Realised P&L 9.74 17.37 55.70 88.72 96.27
Unrealised P&L -4.07 -7.04 -26.04 -49.12 -53.69
Fees paid 1.36 2.75 6.21 9.29 10.39
Fee drag 0.14% 0.28% 0.62% 0.93% 1.04%
Final equity 1005.67 1010.33 1029.66 1039.60 1042.58

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.