← PSAR_EMA_Trend

PSAR_EMA_Trend — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: FAIL · 2 failDirectionalgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -8.13% -15.46% -32.67% -47.81% -50.43%
CAGR -64.35% -87.04% -99.19% -99.96% -99.98%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -30.01% -37.34% -54.56% -69.70% -72.31%
Volatility (ann.) 2.52% 5.36% 13.49% 19.80% 21.59%
Sharpe -40.86 -38.09 -35.61 -39.87 -39.45
Sortino -26.83 -25.03 -24.04 -28.79 -29.13
Calmar -7.79 -5.54 -2.99 -2.07 -1.96
Omega 0.60 0.63 0.67 0.69 0.69
Max drawdown 8.26% 15.71% 33.21% 48.30% 50.93%
Ulcer index 0.0473 0.0911 0.1993 0.2924 0.3086
Drawdown episodes 2 3 2 3 3
Longest underwater (days) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -0.98 -0.98 -0.98 -0.99 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.415% -0.789% -2.005% -3.279% -3.606%
VaR 99% -0.418% -0.972% -2.510% -3.340% -3.735%
CVaR 95% -0.416% -0.881% -2.258% -3.310% -3.671%
Skew 2.98 2.25 0.71 0.61 0.76
Excess kurtosis 10.23 6.76 0.54 -0.17 0.26
Best day 0.31% 0.42% 0.30% -0.12% 0.25%
Worst day -0.42% -0.97% -2.51% -3.34% -3.73%
Positive days 1 1 2 0 1
Negative days 29 29 28 30 29
Round trips 967 967 967 967 967
Winning / losing trades 82 / 885 81 / 886 84 / 883 150 / 817 149 / 818
Trades per day 32.23 32.23 32.23 32.23 32.23
Win rate 8.48% 8.38% 8.69% 15.51% 15.41%
Profit factor 0.23 0.23 0.30 0.32 0.32
Payoff ratio 2.51 2.48 3.10 1.75 1.77
Expectancy -0.0840 -0.1599 -0.3378 -0.4943 -0.5213
Average win 0.3006 0.5596 1.6273 1.5029 1.6115
Average loss 0.1197 0.2256 0.5247 0.8610 0.9098
Average trade -0.0840 -0.1599 -0.3378 -0.4943 -0.5213
Max win streak 5 5 4 5 5
Max loss streak 112 117 97 53 53
Time in market 15.47% 19.75% 23.22% 26.03% 26.66%
Turnover 0.13 0.25 0.60 0.93 0.98
Realised P&L -81.25 -154.58 -326.63 -477.98 -504.12
Unrealised P&L -0.02 -0.03 -0.12 -0.16 -0.17
Fees paid 59.10 109.96 232.84 333.95 355.61
Fee drag 5.91% 11.00% 23.28% 33.39% 35.56%
Final equity 918.73 845.38 673.25 521.85 495.71

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -1.43% -2.76% -8.74% -13.83% -13.83%
CAGR -16.07% -28.85% -67.12% -83.65% -83.66%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -23.29% -24.62% -30.60% -35.69% -35.69%
Volatility (ann.) 3.22% 6.40% 13.79% 19.09% 21.33%
Sharpe -5.43 -5.28 -8.00 -9.39 -8.39
Sortino -4.21 -4.13 -6.32 -7.50 -6.85
Calmar -6.44 -5.54 -5.22 -4.53 -4.37
Omega 0.88 0.89 0.86 0.87 0.88
Max drawdown 2.50% 5.21% 12.85% 18.47% 19.15%
Ulcer index 0.0134 0.0283 0.0687 0.0981 0.0998
Drawdown episodes 7 7 11 13 13
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.57 -0.53 -0.68 -0.75 -0.72
VaR 95% -0.216% -0.434% -1.051% -1.472% -1.661%
VaR 99% -0.231% -0.445% -1.056% -1.806% -1.770%
CVaR 95% -0.224% -0.440% -1.053% -1.639% -1.715%
Skew 4.34 4.22 3.09 2.98 2.79
Excess kurtosis 18.99 18.13 10.24 9.99 8.68
Best day 1.26% 2.44% 3.77% 4.75% 5.17%
Worst day -0.23% -0.45% -1.06% -1.81% -1.77%
Positive days 4 3 4 3 5
Negative days 25 26 25 26 24
Round trips 354 354 354 354 354
Winning / losing trades 49 / 305 54 / 300 43 / 311 70 / 284 69 / 285
Trades per day 11.80 11.80 11.80 11.80 11.80
Win rate 13.84% 15.25% 12.15% 19.77% 19.49%
Profit factor 0.69 0.70 0.63 0.65 0.68
Payoff ratio 4.29 3.87 4.57 2.63 2.79
Expectancy -0.0404 -0.0779 -0.2468 -0.3906 -0.3908
Average win 0.6465 1.1691 3.4849 3.6365 4.1715
Average loss 0.1507 0.3024 0.7627 1.3833 1.4953
Average trade -0.0404 -0.0779 -0.2468 -0.3906 -0.3908
Max win streak 3 4 3 4 4
Max loss streak 54 38 38 19 29
Time in market 18.26% 22.90% 25.52% 27.21% 27.31%
Turnover 0.08 0.15 0.39 0.65 0.71
Realised P&L -14.30 -27.58 -87.36 -138.29 -138.33
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 22.09 42.02 98.78 153.00 165.79
Fee drag 2.21% 4.20% 9.88% 15.30% 16.58%
Final equity 985.70 972.42 912.64 861.71 861.67

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.81% -0.88% -2.68% -5.40% -7.04%
CAGR -9.43% -10.18% -28.16% -49.10% -58.87%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -22.64% -22.71% -24.51% -27.23% -28.87%
Volatility (ann.) 2.97% 6.53% 14.81% 20.60% 22.62%
Sharpe -3.32 -1.61 -2.16 -3.18 -3.81
Sortino -2.49 -1.28 -1.68 -2.60 -3.11
Calmar -4.41 -2.87 -3.24 -3.55 -3.79
Omega 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93
Max drawdown 2.14% 3.55% 8.69% 13.82% 15.54%
Ulcer index 0.0109 0.0201 0.0465 0.0722 0.0834
Drawdown episodes 12 12 14 18 18
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7
Recovery factor -0.38 -0.25 -0.31 -0.39 -0.45
VaR 95% -0.164% -0.314% -0.836% -1.460% -1.589%
VaR 99% -0.187% -0.353% -1.022% -1.588% -1.698%
CVaR 95% -0.175% -0.333% -0.929% -1.524% -1.644%
Skew 3.38 2.98 2.69 2.41 2.45
Excess kurtosis 11.37 8.87 7.17 5.97 6.40
Best day 0.92% 2.00% 3.81% 5.13% 5.49%
Worst day -0.19% -0.35% -1.02% -1.59% -1.70%
Positive days 3 4 6 6 5
Negative days 27 26 24 24 25
Round trips 203 203 203 203 203
Winning / losing trades 34 / 169 34 / 169 33 / 170 45 / 158 46 / 157
Trades per day 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77
Win rate 16.75% 16.75% 16.26% 22.17% 22.66%
Profit factor 0.76 0.87 0.84 0.82 0.79
Payoff ratio 3.75 4.31 4.35 2.87 2.70
Expectancy -0.0399 -0.0433 -0.1321 -0.2660 -0.3469
Average win 0.7356 1.6842 4.4133 5.4073 5.7590
Average loss 0.1960 0.3908 1.0144 1.8818 2.1359
Average trade -0.0399 -0.0433 -0.1321 -0.2660 -0.3469
Max win streak 4 6 2 3 3
Max loss streak 28 25 18 13 13
Time in market 19.53% 23.63% 27.62% 29.07% 29.09%
Turnover 0.06 0.12 0.32 0.54 0.60
Realised P&L -8.11 -8.78 -26.82 -53.99 -70.42
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 12.43 23.57 58.38 92.43 101.59
Fee drag 1.24% 2.36% 5.84% 9.24% 10.16%
Final equity 991.89 991.22 973.18 946.01 929.58

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard FAIL · 2 fail

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.08% 2.55% 7.35% 9.37% 10.50%
CAGR 13.92% 35.83% 136.99% 197.41% 236.79%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.80% -19.33% -14.53% -12.51% -11.39%
Volatility (ann.) 4.27% 8.82% 23.69% 34.74% 37.77%
Sharpe 3.08 3.52 3.76 3.31 3.40
Sortino 3.12 3.62 3.78 3.25 3.34
Calmar 17.63 22.62 35.05 31.30 34.77
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02
Max drawdown 0.79% 1.58% 3.91% 6.31% 6.81%
Ulcer index 0.0030 0.0060 0.0169 0.0252 0.0273
Drawdown episodes 46 56 65 69 75
Longest underwater (days) 9.5 8.2 9.5 9.5 9.5
Recovery factor 1.36 1.61 1.88 1.49 1.54
VaR 95% -0.355% -0.737% -1.834% -1.992% -2.218%
VaR 99% -0.442% -0.917% -2.258% -2.424% -2.630%
CVaR 95% -0.398% -0.827% -2.046% -2.208% -2.424%
Skew 0.89 0.77 0.95 0.88 0.90
Excess kurtosis 2.03 1.29 1.03 0.28 0.32
Best day 0.71% 1.31% 3.40% 4.58% 5.01%
Worst day -0.44% -0.92% -2.26% -2.42% -2.63%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 58 51 45 58 58
Winning / losing trades 58 / 0 51 / 0 45 / 0 58 / 0 58 / 0
Trades per day 1.93 1.70 1.50 1.93 1.93
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.2634 0.6540 2.2941 2.6011 2.8876
Average win 0.2634 0.6540 2.2941 2.6011 2.8876
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.2634 0.6540 2.2941 2.6011 2.8876
Max win streak 58 51 45 58 58
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.10% 97.66% 97.91% 97.44% 97.43%
Turnover 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.15 0.17
Realised P&L 15.28 33.36 103.23 150.86 167.48
Unrealised P&L -4.51 -7.87 -29.74 -57.14 -62.53
Fees paid 5.40 10.12 22.07 34.28 37.30
Fee drag 0.54% 1.01% 2.21% 3.43% 3.73%
Final equity 1010.77 1025.49 1073.49 1093.72 1104.96

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.94% 3.53% 7.05% 12.23% 13.30%
CAGR 26.30% 52.51% 129.20% 307.13% 356.90%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -19.92% -18.33% -14.81% -9.63% -8.56%
Volatility (ann.) 4.26% 8.73% 23.71% 31.66% 34.21%
Sharpe 5.50 4.88 3.62 4.59 4.61
Sortino 5.78 5.11 3.62 4.60 4.62
Calmar 30.49 29.18 25.59 50.07 53.66
Omega 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.86% 1.80% 5.05% 6.13% 6.65%
Ulcer index 0.0041 0.0087 0.0227 0.0273 0.0295
Drawdown episodes 26 23 38 60 60
Longest underwater (days) 21.7 21.7 18.0 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 2.25 1.96 1.40 1.99 2.00
VaR 95% -0.259% -0.507% -1.584% -1.958% -2.129%
VaR 99% -0.424% -0.828% -2.551% -3.140% -3.407%
CVaR 95% -0.341% -0.667% -2.067% -2.549% -2.768%
Skew 2.87 2.82 1.30 1.31 1.31
Excess kurtosis 10.29 10.08 2.45 1.94 1.90
Best day 1.50% 2.95% 5.23% 6.57% 7.10%
Worst day -0.42% -0.83% -2.55% -3.14% -3.41%
Positive days 15 16 14 15 15
Negative days 14 13 15 14 14
Round trips 35 32 30 37 37
Winning / losing trades 35 / 0 32 / 0 30 / 0 37 / 0 37 / 0
Trades per day 1.17 1.07 1.00 1.23 1.23
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.6747 1.5390 3.8820 4.8818 5.3308
Average win 0.6747 1.5390 3.8820 4.8818 5.3308
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.6747 1.5390 3.8820 4.8818 5.3308
Max win streak 35 32 30 37 37
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 97.10% 97.86% 97.96% 96.51% 96.51%
Turnover 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.18 0.20
Realised P&L 23.61 49.25 116.46 180.63 197.24
Unrealised P&L -4.24 -13.95 -45.92 -58.32 -64.24
Fees paid 3.02 5.68 14.62 22.19 24.20
Fee drag 0.30% 0.57% 1.46% 2.22% 2.42%
Final equity 1019.38 1035.29 1070.55 1122.31 1133.00

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.84% 2.85% 8.74% 10.07% 11.46%
CAGR 24.87% 40.68% 177.14% 221.28% 274.24%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -19.99% -18.98% -13.09% -11.76% -10.37%
Volatility (ann.) 4.13% 9.04% 21.99% 32.51% 35.51%
Sharpe 5.39 3.82 4.75 3.75 3.89
Sortino 5.93 4.05 5.06 3.84 3.98
Calmar 32.91 23.88 39.54 35.28 40.28
Omega 1.06 1.04 1.06 1.04 1.04
Max drawdown 0.76% 1.70% 4.48% 6.27% 6.81%
Ulcer index 0.0032 0.0078 0.0190 0.0279 0.0298
Drawdown episodes 29 23 25 33 38
Longest underwater (days) 9.6 21.7 9.6 9.6 9.6
Recovery factor 2.44 1.67 1.95 1.61 1.68
VaR 95% -0.252% -0.494% -1.544% -1.908% -2.075%
VaR 99% -0.433% -0.846% -2.605% -3.204% -3.477%
CVaR 95% -0.343% -0.670% -2.074% -2.556% -2.776%
Skew 1.83 1.92 1.47 1.15 1.15
Excess kurtosis 4.03 4.62 2.67 1.43 1.45
Best day 1.06% 2.17% 4.73% 5.71% 6.10%
Worst day -0.43% -0.85% -2.60% -3.20% -3.48%
Positive days 16 16 16 16 16
Negative days 14 14 14 14 14
Round trips 29 27 25 27 27
Winning / losing trades 29 / 0 27 / 0 25 / 0 27 / 0 27 / 0
Trades per day 0.97 0.90 0.83 0.90 0.90
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.7789 1.5777 4.7514 5.8716 6.6107
Average win 0.7789 1.5777 4.7514 5.8716 6.6107
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.7789 1.5777 4.7514 5.8716 6.6107
Max win streak 29 27 25 27 27
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 95.53% 95.59% 95.87% 96.46% 96.20%
Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.16 0.18
Realised P&L 22.59 42.60 118.78 158.53 178.49
Unrealised P&L -4.17 -14.15 -31.39 -57.85 -63.92
Fees paid 2.49 4.79 11.74 16.28 18.11
Fee drag 0.25% 0.48% 1.17% 1.63% 1.81%
Final equity 1018.42 1028.45 1087.39 1100.68 1114.57

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.