← ParabolicSAR_MM

ParabolicSAR_MM — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 1 warnGuarded: WARN · 1 warnMM-DCAgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 94 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 1 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -56.48% -75.57% -73.42% -62.28% -46.82%
CAGR -100.00% -100.00% -100.00% -100.00% -99.95%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -78.36% -97.45% -95.30% -84.16% -68.70%
Volatility (ann.) 10.15% 18.29% 22.36% 23.02% 20.12%
Sharpe -99.69 -93.64 -71.99 -51.42 -38.08
Sortino -84.30 -80.01 -64.31 -48.07 -35.24
Calmar -1.77 -1.32 -1.36 -1.61 -2.13
Omega 0.54 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.69
Max drawdown 56.49% 75.58% 73.42% 62.29% 46.83%
Ulcer index 0.3108 0.4290 0.5037 0.4947 0.4071
Drawdown episodes 2 2 2 2 2
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -4.491% -7.807% -7.909% -7.710% -6.752%
VaR 99% -5.033% -8.871% -8.835% -7.884% -7.869%
CVaR 95% -4.762% -8.339% -8.372% -7.797% -7.311%
Skew -0.33 -0.33 0.23 -0.06 -0.72
Excess kurtosis -0.84 -1.19 -1.15 -1.64 -1.14
Best day -1.18% -1.67% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Worst day -5.03% -8.87% -8.84% -7.88% -7.87%
Positive days 0 0 1 5 8
Negative days 30 30 29 25 22
Round trips 2,120 2,102 1,695 1,165 746
Winning / losing trades 418 / 1,702 414 / 1,688 350 / 1,345 248 / 917 165 / 581
Trades per day 70.67 70.07 56.50 38.83 24.87
Win rate 19.72% 19.70% 20.65% 21.29% 22.12%
Profit factor 0.20 0.22 0.29 0.32 0.33
Payoff ratio 0.83 0.91 1.11 1.20 1.16
Expectancy -0.0250 -0.0338 -0.0407 -0.0503 -0.0590
Average win 0.0323 0.0491 0.0802 0.1135 0.1312
Average loss 0.0391 0.0541 0.0722 0.0945 0.1130
Average trade -0.0250 -0.0338 -0.0407 -0.0503 -0.0590
Max win streak 5 5 5 5 5
Max loss streak 39 49 49 25 25
Time in market 44.32% 46.70% 39.20% 28.45% 19.28%
Turnover 0.85 1.19 1.33 1.22 0.93
Realised P&L -53.09 -71.03 -69.02 -58.55 -44.01
Unrealised P&L -0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 31.80 42.74 45.38 40.82 30.66
Fee drag 33.83% 45.46% 48.28% 43.42% 32.62%
Final equity 40.91 22.96 24.98 35.45 49.99

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -23.01% -30.74% -42.01% -51.16% -46.93%
CAGR -95.85% -98.85% -99.87% -99.98% -99.96%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -44.87% -52.60% -63.87% -73.02% -68.79%
Volatility (ann.) 5.77% 9.84% 16.72% 24.16% 26.32%
Sharpe -55.15 -45.36 -39.58 -35.97 -29.16
Sortino -46.34 -40.67 -36.77 -34.20 -28.47
Calmar -4.16 -3.21 -2.37 -1.95 -2.13
Omega 0.52 0.62 0.67 0.70 0.74
Max drawdown 23.03% 30.77% 42.05% 51.20% 46.95%
Ulcer index 0.1301 0.1713 0.2334 0.2978 0.2943
Drawdown episodes 1 1 1 1 4
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
VaR 95% -1.380% -2.051% -3.192% -3.913% -3.540%
VaR 99% -1.545% -2.111% -3.318% -4.467% -4.647%
CVaR 95% -1.462% -2.081% -3.255% -4.190% -4.094%
Skew -0.37 -0.40 -0.09 0.57 1.36
Excess kurtosis -0.28 -0.73 -0.43 0.57 3.33
Best day -0.38% -0.44% -0.05% 0.84% 2.36%
Worst day -1.54% -2.11% -3.32% -4.47% -4.65%
Positive days 0 0 0 1 1
Negative days 29 29 29 28 28
Round trips 756 831 829 804 720
Winning / losing trades 159 / 597 225 / 606 235 / 594 210 / 594 188 / 532
Trades per day 25.20 27.70 27.64 26.80 24.00
Win rate 21.03% 27.08% 28.35% 26.12% 26.11%
Profit factor 0.22 0.33 0.38 0.42 0.47
Payoff ratio 0.82 0.88 0.97 1.19 1.32
Expectancy -0.0286 -0.0348 -0.0476 -0.0598 -0.0613
Average win 0.0381 0.0620 0.1040 0.1656 0.2050
Average loss 0.0464 0.0707 0.1076 0.1395 0.1554
Average trade -0.0286 -0.0348 -0.0476 -0.0598 -0.0613
Max win streak 4 4 4 6 6
Max loss streak 33 30 30 29 29
Time in market 35.28% 42.58% 46.74% 48.98% 46.46%
Turnover 0.36 0.60 0.94 1.25 1.29
Realised P&L -21.63 -28.90 -39.49 -48.09 -44.12
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 11.34 17.45 24.92 31.05 30.88
Fee drag 12.06% 18.56% 26.51% 33.03% 32.85%
Final equity 72.37 65.10 54.51 45.91 49.88

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -12.53% -19.13% -26.96% -36.98% -35.02%
CAGR -80.39% -92.45% -97.81% -99.64% -99.47%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -34.36% -40.96% -48.79% -58.80% -56.85%
Volatility (ann.) 4.46% 8.11% 13.84% 22.21% 26.39%
Sharpe -36.50 -31.83 -27.55 -25.17 -19.74
Sortino -31.90 -28.26 -25.56 -23.90 -19.62
Calmar -6.41 -4.82 -3.62 -2.68 -2.82
Omega 0.56 0.62 0.69 0.72 0.78
Max drawdown 12.53% 19.17% 27.05% 37.12% 35.24%
Ulcer index 0.0673 0.1006 0.1383 0.1999 0.1856
Drawdown episodes 1 2 5 4 4
Longest underwater (days) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Recovery factor -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -0.99
VaR 95% -0.837% -1.695% -2.821% -3.699% -3.457%
VaR 99% -0.954% -1.745% -2.979% -4.255% -3.902%
CVaR 95% -0.895% -1.720% -2.900% -3.977% -3.680%
Skew -0.49 -0.71 -0.68 -0.19 1.05
Excess kurtosis 0.21 -0.30 0.07 -0.17 1.59
Best day -0.05% -0.16% 0.23% 1.05% 3.50%
Worst day -0.95% -1.75% -2.98% -4.25% -3.90%
Positive days 0 0 2 3 3
Negative days 30 30 28 27 27
Round trips 454 496 509 498 476
Winning / losing trades 124 / 330 154 / 342 164 / 345 158 / 340 152 / 324
Trades per day 15.13 16.53 16.97 16.60 15.87
Win rate 27.31% 31.05% 32.22% 31.73% 31.93%
Profit factor 0.31 0.37 0.43 0.46 0.54
Payoff ratio 0.83 0.82 0.91 0.99 1.16
Expectancy -0.0259 -0.0363 -0.0498 -0.0698 -0.0692
Average win 0.0429 0.0681 0.1176 0.1869 0.2563
Average loss 0.0518 0.0833 0.1293 0.1891 0.2218
Average trade -0.0259 -0.0363 -0.0498 -0.0698 -0.0692
Max win streak 3 4 7 6 7
Max loss streak 17 17 16 16 16
Time in market 29.57% 36.81% 43.77% 47.85% 50.03%
Turnover 0.24 0.41 0.68 1.00 1.18
Realised P&L -11.78 -17.98 -25.34 -34.76 -32.92
Unrealised P&L -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
Fees paid 6.81 10.41 15.35 20.77 22.75
Fee drag 7.24% 11.08% 16.32% 22.09% 24.20%
Final equity 82.22 76.02 68.66 59.24 61.08

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 1 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.39% 2.98% 6.52% 8.27% 9.18%
CAGR 18.30% 42.95% 115.68% 162.94% 191.09%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -20.49% -18.90% -15.36% -13.61% -12.70%
Volatility (ann.) 11.24% 16.14% 28.39% 31.99% 28.26%
Sharpe 1.55 2.29 2.85 3.18 3.92
Sortino 1.49 2.22 2.75 3.08 3.84
Calmar 8.05 13.70 21.01 27.25 38.52
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02
Max drawdown 2.27% 3.14% 5.51% 5.98% 4.96%
Ulcer index 0.0088 0.0130 0.0219 0.0238 0.0210
Drawdown episodes 204 214 243 175 123
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.61 0.95 1.18 1.38 1.85
VaR 95% -0.741% -1.015% -1.838% -1.945% -1.561%
VaR 99% -1.087% -1.660% -2.854% -2.817% -2.391%
CVaR 95% -0.914% -1.338% -2.346% -2.381% -1.976%
Skew 0.39 0.45 0.55 0.87 1.15
Excess kurtosis 0.45 0.51 0.38 0.66 1.21
Best day 1.24% 2.05% 3.40% 4.96% 4.66%
Worst day -1.09% -1.66% -2.85% -2.82% -2.39%
Positive days 15 17 15 15 15
Negative days 15 13 15 15 15
Round trips 104 104 128 95 73
Winning / losing trades 104 / 0 104 / 0 128 / 0 95 / 0 73 / 0
Trades per day 3.47 3.47 4.27 3.17 2.43
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0392 0.0675 0.1106 0.1787 0.2315
Average win 0.0392 0.0675 0.1106 0.1787 0.2315
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0392 0.0675 0.1106 0.1787 0.2315
Max win streak 104 104 128 95 73
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 98.03% 98.64% 98.91% 98.98% 99.27%
Turnover 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.14
Realised P&L 4.08 7.02 14.15 16.98 16.90
Unrealised P&L -2.38 -3.38 -6.20 -6.89 -5.70
Fees paid 1.81 2.61 4.84 4.89 4.42
Fee drag 1.48% 2.14% 3.96% 4.01% 3.62%
Final equity 123.70 125.64 129.96 132.09 133.20

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.71% 2.40% 4.54% 7.70% 9.40%
CAGR 8.96% 33.40% 71.58% 146.63% 198.27%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.15% -19.46% -17.32% -14.16% -12.46%
Volatility (ann.) 9.71% 15.48% 27.35% 31.28% 27.51%
Sharpe 0.93 1.94 2.11 3.04 4.11
Sortino 0.90 1.90 2.08 3.02 4.12
Calmar 4.21 11.39 13.81 25.83 41.51
Omega 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03
Max drawdown 2.13% 2.93% 5.18% 5.68% 4.78%
Ulcer index 0.0070 0.0110 0.0205 0.0233 0.0213
Drawdown episodes 168 163 176 138 92
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.33 0.82 0.88 1.36 1.97
VaR 95% -0.560% -1.011% -1.850% -1.922% -1.524%
VaR 99% -0.597% -1.312% -2.661% -2.901% -2.458%
CVaR 95% -0.579% -1.162% -2.256% -2.411% -1.991%
Skew 0.22 0.21 0.38 0.46 1.06
Excess kurtosis -0.67 -0.31 0.34 0.09 1.00
Best day 0.82% 1.59% 3.53% 3.57% 4.54%
Worst day -0.60% -1.31% -2.66% -2.90% -2.46%
Positive days 15 15 15 17 16
Negative days 14 14 14 12 13
Round trips 71 90 88 80 54
Winning / losing trades 71 / 0 90 / 0 88 / 0 80 / 0 54 / 0
Trades per day 2.37 3.00 2.93 2.67 1.80
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0436 0.0675 0.1284 0.2001 0.3172
Average win 0.0436 0.0675 0.1284 0.2001 0.3172
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0436 0.0675 0.1284 0.2001 0.3172
Max win streak 71 90 88 80 54
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 93.80% 95.32% 97.15% 97.54% 98.90%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.14
Realised P&L 3.09 6.07 11.30 16.00 17.13
Unrealised P&L -2.23 -3.15 -5.76 -6.61 -5.66
Fees paid 1.24 2.16 3.25 4.18 3.28
Fee drag 1.01% 1.77% 2.67% 3.43% 2.69%
Final equity 122.86 124.92 127.54 131.40 133.46

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 1.29% 2.42% 4.34% 6.34% 9.74%
CAGR 16.89% 33.81% 67.60% 111.20% 209.75%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -20.54% -19.41% -17.49% -15.49% -12.09%
Volatility (ann.) 9.19% 14.94% 26.17% 30.74% 26.75%
Sharpe 1.74 2.02 2.10 2.59 4.36
Sortino 1.75 2.02 2.10 2.60 4.50
Calmar 9.68 11.52 12.95 19.80 45.70
Omega 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04
Max drawdown 1.74% 2.93% 5.22% 5.62% 4.59%
Ulcer index 0.0055 0.0108 0.0198 0.0233 0.0207
Drawdown episodes 141 129 155 108 78
Longest underwater (days) 7.6 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
Recovery factor 0.74 0.83 0.83 1.13 2.12
VaR 95% -0.505% -0.991% -1.810% -1.909% -1.484%
VaR 99% -0.629% -1.186% -2.446% -2.838% -2.507%
CVaR 95% -0.567% -1.088% -2.128% -2.373% -1.996%
Skew 0.34 0.53 0.35 0.53 1.12
Excess kurtosis -0.71 0.20 0.45 -0.00 1.54
Best day 0.83% 1.99% 3.53% 4.19% 5.01%
Worst day -0.63% -1.19% -2.45% -2.84% -2.51%
Positive days 16 16 18 16 16
Negative days 14 14 12 14 14
Round trips 64 71 77 63 46
Winning / losing trades 64 / 0 71 / 0 77 / 0 63 / 0 46 / 0
Trades per day 2.13 2.37 2.57 2.10 1.53
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0520 0.0862 0.1445 0.2251 0.3760
Average win 0.0520 0.0862 0.1445 0.2251 0.3760
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0520 0.0862 0.1445 0.2251 0.3760
Max win streak 64 71 77 63 46
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 90.17% 93.08% 94.12% 96.19% 97.45%
Turnover 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.14
Realised P&L 3.33 6.12 11.12 14.18 17.29
Unrealised P&L -1.75 -3.17 -5.83 -6.45 -5.41
Fees paid 1.11 1.70 2.86 3.30 2.80
Fee drag 0.91% 1.39% 2.34% 2.70% 2.29%
Final equity 123.58 124.96 127.29 129.73 133.88

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.