← QGrid_DONCHIAN_ATR

QGrid_DONCHIAN_ATR — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSQuantGridgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.05% -0.22% -2.18% -4.62% -6.75%
CAGR -0.62% -2.61% -23.50% -43.78% -57.30%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.93% -22.10% -24.06% -26.50% -28.64%
Volatility (ann.) 0.97% 2.03% 7.63% 15.51% 26.77%
Sharpe -0.63 -1.30 -3.47 -3.64 -3.04
Sortino -0.59 -1.21 -3.25 -3.47 -2.93
Calmar -3.19 -6.43 -9.51 -8.12 -7.34
Omega 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.99
Max drawdown 0.19% 0.41% 2.47% 5.39% 7.81%
Ulcer index 0.0008 0.0017 0.0125 0.0275 0.0362
Drawdown episodes 115 59 1 1 1
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 15.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Recovery factor -0.26 -0.53 -0.88 -0.86 -0.87
VaR 95% -0.063% -0.133% -0.641% -1.373% -2.121%
VaR 99% -0.109% -0.229% -1.043% -2.225% -3.449%
CVaR 95% -0.086% -0.181% -0.842% -1.799% -2.785%
Skew 0.13 0.02 0.16 0.18 0.07
Excess kurtosis 0.99 0.95 2.90 3.43 2.36
Best day 0.11% 0.22% 1.01% 2.16% 3.34%
Worst day -0.11% -0.23% -1.04% -2.22% -3.45%
Positive days 15 15 12 11 14
Negative days 15 15 18 19 16
Round trips 161 281 985 1,586 1,687
Winning / losing trades 86 / 75 126 / 155 321 / 664 468 / 1,118 577 / 1,110
Trades per day 5.37 9.37 32.83 52.87 56.23
Win rate 53.42% 44.84% 32.59% 29.51% 34.20%
Profit factor 2.61 1.50 0.53 0.53 0.81
Payoff ratio 2.27 1.84 1.10 1.28 1.55
Expectancy 0.0067 0.0041 -0.0170 -0.0271 -0.0105
Average win 0.0204 0.0275 0.0596 0.1055 0.1270
Average loss 0.0090 0.0149 0.0539 0.0826 0.0820
Average trade 0.0067 0.0041 -0.0170 -0.0271 -0.0105
Max win streak 10 7 13 21 26
Max loss streak 14 22 92 164 132
Time in market 91.91% 92.03% 92.25% 92.47% 96.58%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.14 0.16
Realised P&L 1.08 1.15 -16.70 -42.99 -17.69
Unrealised P&L -1.59 -3.32 -5.08 -3.24 -49.86
Fees paid 1.46 3.56 17.81 40.13 61.03
Fee drag 0.15% 0.36% 1.78% 4.01% 6.10%
Final equity 999.49 997.83 978.23 953.77 932.45

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.03% -0.11% -0.67% -1.64% -2.78%
CAGR -0.33% -1.39% -7.89% -18.19% -29.05%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.89% -21.97% -22.53% -23.50% -24.64%
Volatility (ann.) 0.89% 1.83% 4.51% 8.47% 15.82%
Sharpe -0.37 -0.75 -1.80 -2.33 -2.09
Sortino -0.34 -0.71 -1.71 -2.25 -2.08
Calmar -1.80 -3.56 -8.12 -8.83 -8.19
Omega 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
Max drawdown 0.19% 0.39% 0.97% 2.06% 3.55%
Ulcer index 0.0007 0.0015 0.0040 0.0094 0.0146
Drawdown episodes 79 87 4 1 2
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 21.5 30.0 17.9
Recovery factor -0.15 -0.29 -0.69 -0.79 -0.78
VaR 95% -0.062% -0.131% -0.375% -0.705% -1.290%
VaR 99% -0.099% -0.209% -0.580% -1.120% -1.960%
CVaR 95% -0.081% -0.170% -0.477% -0.912% -1.625%
Skew 0.19 0.04 0.33 0.29 0.29
Excess kurtosis 0.91 1.00 2.58 2.71 2.79
Best day 0.11% 0.21% 0.63% 1.17% 2.09%
Worst day -0.10% -0.21% -0.58% -1.12% -1.96%
Positive days 13 15 12 12 12
Negative days 16 14 17 17 17
Round trips 95 189 528 813 1,036
Winning / losing trades 53 / 42 96 / 93 189 / 339 277 / 536 391 / 645
Trades per day 3.17 6.30 17.60 27.10 34.54
Win rate 55.79% 50.79% 35.80% 34.07% 37.74%
Profit factor 3.24 1.99 0.71 0.67 0.72
Payoff ratio 2.56 1.92 1.27 1.30 1.19
Expectancy 0.0131 0.0111 -0.0116 -0.0189 -0.0245
Average win 0.0339 0.0440 0.0787 0.1126 0.1674
Average loss 0.0132 0.0229 0.0619 0.0868 0.1409
Average trade 0.0131 0.0111 -0.0116 -0.0189 -0.0245
Max win streak 13 9 9 12 16
Max loss streak 15 20 40 35 32
Time in market 87.87% 88.54% 88.78% 89.16% 93.47%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.16
Realised P&L 1.24 2.09 -6.11 -15.36 -25.43
Unrealised P&L -1.52 -3.24 -0.63 -1.01 -2.39
Fees paid 0.86 2.40 9.58 20.63 37.58
Fee drag 0.09% 0.24% 0.96% 2.06% 3.76%
Final equity 999.72 998.84 993.25 983.62 972.15

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.02% -0.00% -0.13% -0.65% -0.77%
CAGR 0.30% -0.03% -1.52% -7.60% -9.01%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.80% -21.83% -21.96% -22.48% -22.60%
Volatility (ann.) 0.81% 1.57% 3.92% 7.25% 14.57%
Sharpe 0.38 -0.01 -0.37 -1.05 -0.57
Sortino 0.36 -0.01 -0.36 -1.06 -0.59
Calmar 1.94 -0.09 -1.76 -4.59 -2.80
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
Max drawdown 0.16% 0.31% 0.87% 1.66% 3.21%
Ulcer index 0.0006 0.0012 0.0030 0.0058 0.0113
Drawdown episodes 60 61 42 28 39
Longest underwater (days) 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
Recovery factor 0.16 -0.01 -0.15 -0.39 -0.24
VaR 95% -0.061% -0.127% -0.367% -0.703% -1.384%
VaR 99% -0.097% -0.203% -0.549% -1.041% -1.992%
CVaR 95% -0.079% -0.165% -0.458% -0.872% -1.688%
Skew 0.27 0.19 0.28 0.37 0.57
Excess kurtosis 1.70 2.50 4.15 4.68 4.51
Best day 0.11% 0.23% 0.63% 1.19% 2.47%
Worst day -0.10% -0.20% -0.55% -1.04% -1.99%
Positive days 13 14 13 12 13
Negative days 17 16 17 18 17
Round trips 82 159 383 574 696
Winning / losing trades 50 / 32 80 / 79 159 / 224 211 / 363 275 / 421
Trades per day 2.73 5.30 12.77 19.13 23.20
Win rate 60.98% 50.31% 41.51% 36.76% 39.51%
Profit factor 2.35 1.18 0.99 0.86 0.95
Payoff ratio 1.50 1.16 1.40 1.48 1.45
Expectancy 0.0145 0.0035 -0.0003 -0.0076 -0.0041
Average win 0.0414 0.0465 0.0831 0.1255 0.1915
Average loss 0.0275 0.0400 0.0595 0.0850 0.1318
Average trade 0.0145 0.0035 -0.0003 -0.0076 -0.0041
Max win streak 18 19 12 11 16
Max loss streak 9 22 16 33 32
Time in market 84.04% 84.40% 84.59% 84.89% 90.82%
Turnover 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11
Realised P&L 1.19 0.56 -0.11 -4.37 -2.82
Unrealised P&L -0.94 -0.58 -1.15 -2.11 -4.90
Fees paid 0.75 2.02 6.98 14.61 25.34
Fee drag 0.07% 0.20% 0.70% 1.46% 2.53%
Final equity 1000.25 999.98 998.74 993.52 992.27

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.01% 0.00% -0.37% -0.33% 0.09%
CAGR 0.14% 0.05% -4.37% -3.92% 1.09%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.87% -21.88% -22.25% -22.21% -21.79%
Volatility (ann.) 0.99% 2.08% 8.42% 18.75% 28.30%
Sharpe 0.14 0.04 -0.49 -0.12 0.18
Sortino 0.13 0.03 -0.46 -0.11 0.17
Calmar 0.71 0.14 -2.34 -0.92 0.18
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.19% 0.40% 1.87% 4.26% 6.07%
Ulcer index 0.0008 0.0017 0.0073 0.0163 0.0238
Drawdown episodes 171 160 155 181 155
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.2
Recovery factor 0.06 0.01 -0.20 -0.08 0.01
VaR 95% -0.063% -0.132% -0.630% -1.488% -2.100%
VaR 99% -0.109% -0.228% -1.027% -2.357% -3.381%
CVaR 95% -0.086% -0.180% -0.829% -1.922% -2.741%
Skew 0.13 0.10 0.03 0.08 0.08
Excess kurtosis 0.98 0.99 1.61 2.12 1.54
Best day 0.12% 0.24% 1.10% 2.66% 3.77%
Worst day -0.11% -0.23% -1.03% -2.36% -3.38%
Positive days 15 15 16 18 18
Negative days 15 15 14 12 12
Round trips 125 188 415 616 688
Winning / losing trades 125 / 0 188 / 0 415 / 0 616 / 0 688 / 0
Trades per day 4.17 6.27 13.83 20.53 22.93
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0136 0.0179 0.0287 0.0523 0.0773
Average win 0.0136 0.0179 0.0287 0.0523 0.0773
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0136 0.0179 0.0287 0.0523 0.0773
Max win streak 125 188 415 616 688
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 92.84% 93.21% 93.22% 92.67% 93.83%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05
Realised P&L 1.70 3.37 11.90 32.21 53.16
Unrealised P&L -1.59 -3.32 -15.56 -35.49 -52.27
Fees paid 1.21 2.48 8.14 16.89 28.92
Fee drag 0.12% 0.25% 0.81% 1.69% 2.89%
Final equity 1000.11 1000.04 996.33 996.72 1000.89

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.04% 0.09% 0.11% 0.20% 0.03%
CAGR 0.50% 1.10% 1.37% 2.48% 0.39%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.82% -21.77% -21.75% -21.66% -21.83%
Volatility (ann.) 0.92% 1.87% 6.17% 12.35% 23.89%
Sharpe 0.55 0.59 0.25 0.26 0.14
Sortino 0.51 0.56 0.24 0.25 0.13
Calmar 2.72 2.82 1.04 0.92 0.08
Omega 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.19% 0.39% 1.31% 2.70% 5.19%
Ulcer index 0.0007 0.0015 0.0048 0.0097 0.0188
Drawdown episodes 118 139 125 127 121
Longest underwater (days) 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.4
Recovery factor 0.22 0.23 0.09 0.07 0.01
VaR 95% -0.062% -0.130% -0.497% -1.040% -2.097%
VaR 99% -0.099% -0.209% -0.656% -1.304% -2.537%
CVaR 95% -0.080% -0.170% -0.577% -1.172% -2.317%
Skew 0.05 -0.02 0.31 0.37 0.55
Excess kurtosis 0.55 0.69 1.47 1.76 2.49
Best day 0.11% 0.22% 0.84% 1.76% 3.66%
Worst day -0.10% -0.21% -0.66% -1.30% -2.54%
Positive days 17 18 18 18 17
Negative days 12 11 11 11 12
Round trips 68 134 255 315 385
Winning / losing trades 68 / 0 134 / 0 255 / 0 315 / 0 385 / 0
Trades per day 2.27 4.47 8.50 10.50 12.83
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0284 0.0309 0.0456 0.0756 0.1119
Average win 0.0284 0.0309 0.0456 0.0756 0.1119
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0284 0.0309 0.0456 0.0756 0.1119
Max win streak 68 134 255 315 385
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 88.93% 87.85% 87.65% 88.88% 86.55%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04
Realised P&L 1.93 4.14 11.63 23.81 43.09
Unrealised P&L -1.52 -3.24 -10.51 -21.79 -42.76
Fees paid 0.64 1.77 4.96 8.93 16.31
Fee drag 0.06% 0.18% 0.50% 0.89% 1.63%
Final equity 1000.41 1000.89 1001.10 1002.00 1000.29

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.12% 0.18% 0.62% 1.34% 2.09%
CAGR 1.50% 2.17% 7.76% 17.58% 28.65%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.71% -21.65% -21.21% -20.49% -19.74%
Volatility (ann.) 0.83% 1.71% 6.04% 12.50% 21.38%
Sharpe 1.81 1.27 1.27 1.36 1.29
Sortino 1.67 1.19 1.23 1.34 1.28
Calmar 10.15 6.96 5.66 6.25 6.33
Omega 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.01
Max drawdown 0.15% 0.31% 1.37% 2.81% 4.53%
Ulcer index 0.0005 0.0011 0.0042 0.0084 0.0141
Drawdown episodes 102 125 105 113 91
Longest underwater (days) 6.5 6.5 8.5 7.6 7.7
Recovery factor 0.83 0.57 0.45 0.48 0.46
VaR 95% -0.061% -0.127% -0.607% -1.272% -2.043%
VaR 99% -0.097% -0.203% -0.850% -1.736% -2.798%
CVaR 95% -0.079% -0.165% -0.729% -1.504% -2.420%
Skew 0.08 0.08 0.57 0.84 0.82
Excess kurtosis 1.64 2.04 4.95 5.46 4.92
Best day 0.11% 0.23% 1.15% 2.54% 4.10%
Worst day -0.10% -0.20% -0.85% -1.74% -2.80%
Positive days 19 18 19 18 19
Negative days 11 12 11 12 11
Round trips 69 104 198 257 323
Winning / losing trades 69 / 0 104 / 0 198 / 0 257 / 0 323 / 0
Trades per day 2.30 3.47 6.60 8.57 10.77
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0319 0.0370 0.0610 0.0991 0.1380
Average win 0.0319 0.0370 0.0610 0.0991 0.1380
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0319 0.0370 0.0610 0.0991 0.1380
Max win streak 69 104 198 257 323
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 77.75% 76.85% 85.04% 85.79% 85.66%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.04
Realised P&L 2.20 3.85 12.07 25.46 44.59
Unrealised P&L -0.97 -2.08 -5.91 -12.07 -23.67
Fees paid 0.65 1.47 3.77 6.78 14.36
Fee drag 0.06% 0.15% 0.38% 0.68% 1.44%
Final equity 1001.23 1001.77 1006.16 1013.40 1020.92

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.