← QGrid_DONCHIAN_ATR_Anti

QGrid_DONCHIAN_ATR_Anti — metrics

Unguarded: PASSGuarded: PASSQuantGridgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships PASS

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.03% -0.03% -0.41% -0.58% -4.22%
CAGR -0.31% -0.32% -4.89% -6.83% -40.80%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.91% -21.91% -22.29% -22.46% -26.10%
Volatility (ann.) 0.19% 0.49% 2.02% 7.07% 25.97%
Sharpe -1.58 -0.64 -2.47 -0.96 -1.89
Sortino -1.15 -0.56 -2.27 -0.93 -1.79
Calmar -6.43 -2.72 -7.57 -3.81 -7.27
Omega 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
Max drawdown 0.05% 0.12% 0.65% 1.79% 5.61%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0003 0.0024 0.0057 0.0213
Drawdown episodes 55 39 7 1 70
Longest underwater (days) 10.2 8.2 29.4 30.0 8.4
Recovery factor -0.53 -0.22 -0.64 -0.32 -0.75
VaR 95% -0.016% -0.035% -0.171% -0.752% -1.951%
VaR 99% -0.024% -0.070% -0.340% -1.125% -2.896%
CVaR 95% -0.020% -0.053% -0.256% -0.938% -2.424%
Skew 0.30 0.15 0.25 0.41 0.16
Excess kurtosis 3.59 4.26 5.39 5.98 1.58
Best day 0.03% 0.07% 0.35% 1.30% 3.14%
Worst day -0.02% -0.07% -0.34% -1.12% -2.90%
Positive days 13 17 14 15 14
Negative days 10 13 16 15 16
Round trips 24 50 70 82 77
Winning / losing trades 14 / 10 25 / 25 28 / 42 44 / 38 51 / 26
Trades per day 0.80 1.67 2.33 2.73 2.57
Win rate 58.33% 50.00% 40.00% 53.66% 66.23%
Profit factor 1.25 0.84 0.39 0.38 1.59
Payoff ratio 0.89 0.84 0.58 0.33 0.81
Expectancy 0.0023 -0.0034 -0.0514 -0.0652 0.0553
Average win 0.0197 0.0360 0.0808 0.0755 0.2252
Average loss 0.0222 0.0428 0.1396 0.2282 0.2782
Average trade 0.0023 -0.0034 -0.0514 -0.0652 0.0553
Max win streak 5 7 7 17 10
Max loss streak 4 8 15 11 5
Time in market 54.50% 76.88% 84.52% 84.93% 92.01%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02
Realised P&L 0.05 -0.17 -3.60 -5.35 4.26
Unrealised P&L -0.31 -0.09 -0.52 -0.45 -46.42
Fees paid 0.12 0.51 3.28 6.68 15.15
Fee drag 0.01% 0.05% 0.33% 0.67% 1.51%
Final equity 999.75 999.74 995.88 994.19 957.82

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.03% -0.03% 0.02% 0.25% 0.65%
CAGR -0.39% -0.36% 0.25% 3.03% 8.15%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.89% -21.89% -21.84% -21.61% -21.21%
Volatility (ann.) 0.14% 0.30% 0.57% 2.23% 6.00%
Sharpe -2.87 -1.21 0.44 1.35 1.34
Sortino -2.51 -1.14 0.44 1.35 1.35
Calmar -8.48 -5.43 2.25 6.80 9.67
Omega 0.96 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.05% 0.07% 0.11% 0.45% 0.84%
Ulcer index 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0013 0.0028
Drawdown episodes 10 16 74 85 74
Longest underwater (days) 17.7 11.8 8.0 8.5 7.9
Recovery factor -0.70 -0.45 0.19 0.55 0.77
VaR 95% -0.010% -0.023% -0.032% -0.202% -0.374%
VaR 99% -0.013% -0.030% -0.045% -0.271% -0.505%
CVaR 95% -0.012% -0.026% -0.038% -0.237% -0.439%
Skew -1.87 0.79 0.46 0.85 0.24
Excess kurtosis 2.87 2.66 1.15 4.80 1.15
Best day 0.00% 0.04% 0.06% 0.40% 0.59%
Worst day -0.01% -0.03% -0.04% -0.27% -0.50%
Positive days 14 15 16 16 17
Negative days 14 14 13 13 12
Round trips 7 12 27 40 58
Winning / losing trades 5 / 2 8 / 4 17 / 10 28 / 12 39 / 19
Trades per day 0.23 0.40 0.90 1.33 1.93
Win rate 71.43% 66.67% 62.96% 70.00% 67.24%
Profit factor 7.88 3.70 1.41 2.30 1.44
Payoff ratio 3.15 1.85 0.83 0.99 0.70
Expectancy 0.0040 0.0188 0.0119 0.0542 0.1034
Average win 0.0064 0.0385 0.0649 0.1368 0.5005
Average loss 0.0020 0.0208 0.0782 0.1387 0.7119
Average trade 0.0040 0.0188 0.0119 0.0542 0.1034
Max win streak 3 6 15 17 8
Max loss streak 2 4 7 6 5
Time in market 29.12% 65.78% 68.81% 69.45% 86.71%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03
Realised P&L 0.03 0.23 0.32 2.17 6.00
Unrealised P&L -0.35 -0.52 -0.11 0.29 0.47
Fees paid 0.04 0.12 0.71 2.05 10.54
Fee drag 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.20% 1.05%
Final equity 999.68 999.71 1000.21 1002.46 1006.46

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.02% 0.02% 0.09% 0.34% 1.69%
CAGR 0.29% 0.22% 1.15% 4.22% 22.60%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.81% -21.81% -21.74% -21.49% -20.14%
Volatility (ann.) 0.08% 0.21% 0.60% 1.63% 6.44%
Sharpe 3.45 1.04 1.90 2.54 3.20
Sortino 2.67 0.83 1.93 2.51 3.33
Calmar 16.22 4.82 11.29 18.75 25.03
Omega 1.09 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05
Max drawdown 0.02% 0.05% 0.10% 0.23% 0.90%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0004 0.0019
Drawdown episodes 56 64 114 92 85
Longest underwater (days) 4.9 4.9 7.6 5.0 7.9
Recovery factor 1.33 0.40 0.92 1.51 1.87
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.012% -0.032% -0.048% -0.376%
VaR 99% -0.001% -0.014% -0.041% -0.063% -0.489%
CVaR 95% -0.001% -0.013% -0.036% -0.055% -0.432%
Skew 2.56 -0.23 0.60 1.02 0.10
Excess kurtosis 6.42 0.88 1.36 0.83 2.36
Best day 0.01% 0.01% 0.07% 0.14% 0.66%
Worst day -0.00% -0.01% -0.04% -0.06% -0.49%
Positive days 10 12 19 17 21
Negative days 8 10 11 12 9
Round trips 4 9 16 25 38
Winning / losing trades 4 / 0 7 / 2 12 / 4 20 / 5 34 / 4
Trades per day 0.13 0.30 0.53 0.83 1.27
Win rate 100.00% 77.78% 75.00% 80.00% 89.47%
Profit factor ∞ 88.31 6.01 7.03 5.69
Payoff ratio ∞ 25.23 2.00 1.76 0.67
Expectancy 0.0550 0.0507 0.0726 0.1236 0.4032
Average win 0.0550 0.0660 0.1161 0.1801 0.5468
Average loss 0.0000 0.0026 0.0580 0.1025 0.8170
Average trade 0.0550 0.0507 0.0726 0.1236 0.4032
Max win streak 4 6 7 12 18
Max loss streak 0 2 1 2 1
Time in market 13.66% 33.02% 68.43% 74.04% 76.81%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02
Realised P&L 0.22 0.46 1.16 3.09 15.32
Unrealised P&L 0.02 -0.27 -0.22 0.32 1.57
Fees paid 0.02 0.08 0.36 1.20 6.28
Fee drag 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.63%
Final equity 1000.24 1000.18 1000.94 1003.40 1016.87

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard PASS

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.04% -0.01% -0.28% -1.31% -3.31%
CAGR -0.49% -0.09% -3.36% -14.86% -33.59%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.92% -21.89% -22.16% -23.20% -25.19%
Volatility (ann.) 0.30% 0.66% 3.57% 8.99% 26.12%
Sharpe -1.66 -0.13 -0.94 -1.75 -1.44
Sortino -1.18 -0.11 -0.85 -1.58 -1.31
Calmar -5.62 -0.64 -5.11 -6.90 -5.99
Omega 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
Max drawdown 0.09% 0.13% 0.66% 2.15% 5.61%
Ulcer index 0.0002 0.0004 0.0018 0.0078 0.0217
Drawdown episodes 57 91 80 128 104
Longest underwater (days) 8.0 5.1 7.3 8.0 8.2
Recovery factor -0.46 -0.05 -0.43 -0.61 -0.59
VaR 95% -0.024% -0.043% -0.211% -0.748% -1.933%
VaR 99% -0.025% -0.070% -0.339% -1.120% -2.869%
CVaR 95% -0.025% -0.057% -0.275% -0.934% -2.401%
Skew -0.18 -0.13 -0.67 0.02 0.09
Excess kurtosis 1.23 2.17 1.32 2.98 1.30
Best day 0.03% 0.07% 0.23% 1.18% 3.10%
Worst day -0.02% -0.07% -0.34% -1.12% -2.87%
Positive days 14 20 17 17 17
Negative days 9 10 13 13 13
Round trips 21 41 55 60 66
Winning / losing trades 21 / 0 41 / 0 55 / 0 60 / 0 66 / 0
Trades per day 0.70 1.37 1.83 2.00 2.20
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0133 0.0217 0.0329 0.0759 0.2046
Average win 0.0133 0.0217 0.0329 0.0759 0.2046
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0133 0.0217 0.0329 0.0759 0.2046
Max win streak 21 41 55 60 66
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 54.95% 76.91% 84.02% 84.94% 85.60%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Realised P&L 0.28 0.89 1.81 4.56 13.50
Unrealised P&L -0.69 -0.96 -4.61 -17.69 -46.58
Fees paid 0.11 0.40 2.57 4.21 12.01
Fee drag 0.01% 0.04% 0.26% 0.42% 1.20%
Final equity 999.59 999.93 997.19 986.85 966.91

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return -0.03% -0.02% 0.10% 0.50% 2.38%
CAGR -0.38% -0.24% 1.20% 6.24% 33.17%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.89% -21.88% -21.76% -21.36% -19.48%
Volatility (ann.) 0.14% 0.30% 0.66% 2.29% 7.47%
Sharpe -2.81 -0.82 1.80 2.66 3.87
Sortino -2.45 -0.78 1.81 2.69 4.06
Calmar -8.29 -3.71 12.53 14.00 30.65
Omega 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.05
Max drawdown 0.05% 0.07% 0.10% 0.45% 1.08%
Ulcer index 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0013 0.0023
Drawdown episodes 12 84 152 169 134
Longest underwater (days) 17.7 8.0 6.6 6.6 4.3
Recovery factor -0.68 -0.31 1.02 1.12 2.20
VaR 95% -0.010% -0.023% -0.032% -0.202% -0.371%
VaR 99% -0.013% -0.030% -0.045% -0.271% -0.482%
CVaR 95% -0.012% -0.026% -0.038% -0.236% -0.427%
Skew -1.85 0.72 0.33 0.67 0.28
Excess kurtosis 2.81 2.45 0.43 4.53 0.51
Best day 0.00% 0.04% 0.06% 0.40% 0.60%
Worst day -0.01% -0.03% -0.04% -0.27% -0.48%
Positive days 14 16 17 18 20
Negative days 14 13 12 11 9
Round trips 7 10 26 39 54
Winning / losing trades 7 / 0 10 / 0 26 / 0 39 / 0 54 / 0
Trades per day 0.23 0.33 0.87 1.30 1.80
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0050 0.0318 0.0532 0.1204 0.4324
Average win 0.0050 0.0318 0.0532 0.1204 0.4324
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0050 0.0318 0.0532 0.1204 0.4324
Max win streak 7 10 26 39 54
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 29.16% 65.78% 68.81% 69.47% 76.67%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02
Realised P&L 0.04 0.32 1.38 4.70 23.35
Unrealised P&L -0.35 -0.52 -0.40 0.29 0.47
Fees paid 0.04 0.09 0.70 2.00 10.08
Fee drag 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.20% 1.01%
Final equity 999.69 999.80 1000.98 1004.99 1023.82

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.02% 0.02% 0.12% 0.36% 2.05%
CAGR 0.29% 0.24% 1.49% 4.50% 27.96%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.81% -21.81% -21.71% -21.47% -19.78%
Volatility (ann.) 0.08% 0.21% 0.61% 1.65% 6.64%
Sharpe 3.45 1.12 2.42 2.67 3.75
Sortino 2.67 0.89 2.44 2.64 3.90
Calmar 16.22 5.18 14.64 19.97 31.00
Omega 1.09 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06
Max drawdown 0.02% 0.05% 0.10% 0.23% 0.90%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0004 0.0019
Drawdown episodes 56 68 123 100 102
Longest underwater (days) 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.8
Recovery factor 1.33 0.43 1.20 1.61 2.27
VaR 95% -0.000% -0.012% -0.032% -0.048% -0.375%
VaR 99% -0.001% -0.014% -0.041% -0.063% -0.488%
CVaR 95% -0.001% -0.013% -0.036% -0.055% -0.432%
Skew 2.56 -0.25 0.60 0.99 0.16
Excess kurtosis 6.42 0.90 0.96 0.69 1.97
Best day 0.01% 0.01% 0.07% 0.14% 0.66%
Worst day -0.00% -0.01% -0.04% -0.06% -0.49%
Positive days 10 14 18 17 22
Negative days 8 8 11 12 7
Round trips 4 9 16 23 35
Winning / losing trades 4 / 0 9 / 0 16 / 0 23 / 0 35 / 0
Trades per day 0.13 0.30 0.53 0.77 1.17
Win rate 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0550 0.0522 0.0899 0.1590 0.5402
Average win 0.0550 0.0522 0.0899 0.1590 0.5402
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0550 0.0522 0.0899 0.1590 0.5402
Max win streak 4 9 16 23 35
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 13.66% 33.09% 68.49% 73.83% 76.02%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02
Realised P&L 0.22 0.47 1.44 3.66 18.91
Unrealised P&L 0.02 -0.27 -0.22 -0.03 1.57
Fees paid 0.02 0.08 0.36 1.16 5.85
Fee drag 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.59%
Final equity 1000.24 1000.20 1001.21 1003.61 1020.46

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.