← QGrid_DONCHIAN_PCT

QGrid_DONCHIAN_PCT — metrics

Unguarded: WARN · 4 warnGuarded: WARN · 4 warnQuantGridgunbot-quant

BTCUSDT · 2026-08-13 01:50 → 2026-09-12 01:50 UTC (30 days) · 0.03% fee + 2 bps slippage · 1,000 quote, one figure for every cell

The same document for both runs of the same measurement — first as the strategy ships, then with the break-even guard. Everything else about the two runs is identical.

As it ships WARN · 4 warn

Exits: the strategy's own exits, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.02% 0.10% 0.13% 0.21%
CAGR 0.00% 0.28% 1.18% 1.54% 2.62%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -21.86% -21.79% -21.76% -21.67%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.18% 0.29% 1.07% 1.86%
Sharpe 0.00 1.55 4.02 1.44 1.40
Sortino 0.00 0.33 1.17 1.04 1.14
Calmar 0.00 5.34 15.78 7.21 6.97
Omega 0.00 1.03 1.08 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.05% 0.07% 0.21% 0.38%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0008 0.0014
Drawdown episodes 0 7 15 48 145
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 20.8 2.3 6.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 0.44 1.29 0.59 0.57
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -0.089% -0.126%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -0.133% -0.204%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -0.111% -0.165%
Skew 0.00 3.41 3.34 0.53 0.30
Excess kurtosis 0.00 10.23 11.51 3.05 0.76
Best day 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.18% 0.23%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.13% -0.20%
Positive days 0 2 4 12 13
Negative days 0 0 0 9 11
Round trips 0 1 4 11 25
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 1 / 0 4 / 0 11 / 0 21 / 4
Trades per day 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.37 0.83
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 84.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ 15.80
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ 3.01
Expectancy 0.0000 0.2292 0.2407 0.2527 0.2077
Average win 0.0000 0.2292 0.2407 0.2527 0.2640
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0877
Average trade 0.0000 0.2292 0.2407 0.2527 0.2077
Max win streak 0 1 4 11 8
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 2
Time in market 0.00% 4.47% 4.73% 53.47% 67.89%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Realised P&L 0.00 0.23 0.96 2.78 5.19
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -1.52 -3.07
Fees paid 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.29 0.92
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.09%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.23 1000.96 1001.26 1002.12

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.03% 0.23%
CAGR 0.00% 0.29% 1.05% 0.31% 2.85%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.84% -21.77% -21.83% -21.63%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.22% 0.67% 1.33% 2.67%
Sharpe 0.00 1.33 1.56 0.24 1.06
Sortino 0.00 0.24 1.03 0.20 0.84
Calmar 0.00 7.54 7.47 1.24 4.96
Omega 0.00 1.06 1.02 1.00 1.01
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.04% 0.14% 0.25% 0.57%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0010 0.0019
Drawdown episodes 0 11 32 36 73
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 20.4 6.5 8.0 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 0.62 0.61 0.10 0.40
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.063% -0.087% -0.249%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.083% -0.128% -0.355%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.073% -0.108% -0.302%
Skew 0.00 3.78 0.94 0.45 0.19
Excess kurtosis 0.00 13.73 6.15 1.63 3.48
Best day 0.00% 0.02% 0.13% 0.17% 0.43%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.08% -0.13% -0.36%
Positive days 0 2 10 11 13
Negative days 0 0 5 11 10
Round trips 0 2 5 11 27
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 2 / 0 5 / 0 9 / 2 22 / 5
Trades per day 0.00 0.07 0.17 0.37 0.90
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 81.82% 81.48%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ 2.65 3.62
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ 0.59 0.82
Expectancy 0.0000 0.1584 0.2065 0.1257 0.1376
Average win 0.0000 0.1584 0.2065 0.2467 0.2334
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4187 0.2838
Average trade 0.0000 0.1584 0.2065 0.1257 0.1376
Max win streak 0 2 5 7 10
Max loss streak 0 0 0 1 3
Time in market 0.00% 3.06% 39.51% 59.22% 61.10%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Realised P&L 0.00 0.32 1.03 1.38 3.72
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.08 -0.17 -1.13 -1.41
Fees paid 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.30 1.01
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.24 1000.86 1000.26 1002.31

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.03% 0.10% 0.11% 0.18%
CAGR 0.00% 0.38% 1.24% 1.34% 2.25%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.80% -21.73% -21.72% -21.65%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.17% 0.64% 1.27% 2.68%
Sharpe 0.00 2.22 1.94 1.06 0.84
Sortino 0.00 0.46 1.38 0.86 0.79
Calmar 0.00 17.01 9.02 5.31 3.93
Omega 0.00 1.16 1.03 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.02% 0.14% 0.25% 0.57%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004 0.0009 0.0019
Drawdown episodes 0 9 22 50 67
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 20.5 6.5 8.1 8.1
Recovery factor 0.00 1.40 0.74 0.43 0.32
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.061% -0.085% -0.243%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.001% -0.085% -0.128% -0.367%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.000% -0.073% -0.107% -0.305%
Skew 0.00 4.87 0.89 0.43 0.42
Excess kurtosis 0.00 22.72 5.27 1.31 3.88
Best day 0.00% 0.03% 0.13% 0.17% 0.46%
Worst day 0.00% -0.00% -0.09% -0.13% -0.37%
Positive days 0 2 9 14 14
Negative days 0 1 7 10 14
Round trips 0 2 5 14 24
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 1 / 1 4 / 1 13 / 1 20 / 4
Trades per day 0.00 0.07 0.17 0.47 0.80
Win rate 0.00% 50.00% 80.00% 92.86% 83.33%
Profit factor 0.00 61.73 227.65 287.19 3.68
Payoff ratio 0.00 61.73 56.91 22.09 0.74
Expectancy 0.0000 0.1434 0.2448 0.2140 0.1624
Average win 0.0000 0.2915 0.3074 0.2312 0.2675
Average loss 0.0000 0.0047 0.0054 0.0105 0.3630
Average trade 0.0000 0.1434 0.2448 0.2140 0.1624
Max win streak 0 1 3 7 11
Max loss streak 0 1 1 1 2
Time in market 0.00% 1.89% 30.47% 62.76% 78.39%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Realised P&L 0.00 0.29 1.22 3.00 3.90
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.03 -0.21 -1.90 -2.06
Fees paid 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.38 0.92
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.09%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.31 1001.01 1001.09 1001.83

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

With the break-even guard WARN · 4 warn

Exits: no exit below average entry plus fees, stops included

The metric set the portfolio dashboard reports, computed per cell so a backtested configuration and a running one read on the same axes. Portfolio-level measures (concentration, pairwise correlation, beta against a benchmark) are omitted: one strategy on one pair has no cross-sectional structure to measure, and printing a null would imply the number exists.

1m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.02% 0.10% 0.13% 0.23%
CAGR 0.00% 0.28% 1.18% 1.54% 2.81%
Buy and hold 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88% 21.88%
Edge vs B&H -21.88% -21.86% -21.79% -21.76% -21.65%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.18% 0.29% 1.07% 1.94%
Sharpe 0.00 1.55 4.02 1.44 1.44
Sortino 0.00 0.33 1.17 1.04 1.19
Calmar 0.00 5.34 15.78 7.21 7.49
Omega 0.00 1.03 1.08 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.05% 0.07% 0.21% 0.38%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0008 0.0014
Drawdown episodes 0 7 15 48 149
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 20.8 2.3 6.5 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 0.44 1.29 0.59 0.61
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -0.089% -0.126%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -0.133% -0.204%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% -0.111% -0.165%
Skew 0.00 3.41 3.34 0.53 0.35
Excess kurtosis 0.00 10.23 11.51 3.05 0.78
Best day 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.18% 0.23%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.13% -0.20%
Positive days 0 2 4 12 13
Negative days 0 0 0 9 11
Round trips 0 1 4 11 22
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 1 / 0 4 / 0 11 / 0 22 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.37 0.73
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.2292 0.2407 0.2527 0.2431
Average win 0.0000 0.2292 0.2407 0.2527 0.2431
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.2292 0.2407 0.2527 0.2431
Max win streak 0 1 4 11 22
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 4.47% 4.73% 53.47% 69.10%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Realised P&L 0.00 0.23 0.96 2.78 5.35
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -1.52 -3.07
Fees paid 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.29 0.85
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.08%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.23 1000.96 1001.26 1002.28

3m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% -0.01% -0.01%
CAGR 0.00% 0.29% 1.05% -0.18% -0.15%
Buy and hold 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Edge vs B&H -21.86% -21.84% -21.77% -21.87% -21.87%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.22% 0.67% 1.37% 3.13%
Sharpe 0.00 1.33 1.56 -0.12 -0.03
Sortino 0.00 0.24 1.03 -0.10 -0.03
Calmar 0.00 7.54 7.47 -0.67 -0.23
Omega 0.00 1.06 1.02 1.00 1.00
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.04% 0.14% 0.26% 0.62%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0010 0.0023
Drawdown episodes 0 11 32 37 75
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 20.4 6.5 8.0 8.2
Recovery factor 0.00 0.62 0.61 -0.05 -0.02
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.063% -0.087% -0.249%
VaR 99% 0.000% 0.000% -0.083% -0.128% -0.355%
CVaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.073% -0.108% -0.302%
Skew 0.00 3.78 0.94 0.48 0.23
Excess kurtosis 0.00 13.73 6.15 1.72 2.61
Best day 0.00% 0.02% 0.13% 0.17% 0.43%
Worst day 0.00% 0.00% -0.08% -0.13% -0.36%
Positive days 0 2 10 11 13
Negative days 0 0 5 11 10
Round trips 0 2 5 9 23
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 2 / 0 5 / 0 9 / 0 23 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.07 0.17 0.30 0.77
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.1584 0.2065 0.2232 0.2247
Average win 0.0000 0.1584 0.2065 0.2232 0.2247
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.1584 0.2065 0.2232 0.2247
Max win streak 0 2 5 9 23
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 3.06% 39.51% 59.20% 61.10%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Realised P&L 0.00 0.32 1.03 2.01 5.17
Unrealised P&L 0.00 -0.08 -0.17 -2.15 -5.29
Fees paid 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.28 0.92
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.09%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.24 1000.86 999.86 999.88

5m

Metric calm cautious medium bold aggressive
Return 0.00% 0.04% 0.11% 0.10% 0.19%
CAGR 0.00% 0.47% 1.37% 1.21% 2.30%
Buy and hold 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83% 21.83%
Edge vs B&H -21.83% -21.79% -21.72% -21.73% -21.64%
Volatility (ann.) 0.00% 0.23% 0.67% 1.27% 3.16%
Sharpe 0.00 2.07 2.03 0.96 0.74
Sortino 0.00 0.63 1.30 0.78 0.69
Calmar 0.00 10.00 9.97 4.82 4.02
Omega 0.00 1.08 1.03 1.01 1.01
Max drawdown 0.00% 0.05% 0.14% 0.25% 0.57%
Ulcer index 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0009 0.0020
Drawdown episodes 0 15 22 48 74
Longest underwater (days) 0.0 1.3 6.5 8.1 8.1
Recovery factor 0.00 0.82 0.81 0.39 0.33
VaR 95% 0.000% 0.000% -0.061% -0.085% -0.243%
VaR 99% 0.000% -0.003% -0.085% -0.128% -0.367%
CVaR 95% 0.000% -0.000% -0.073% -0.107% -0.305%
Skew 0.00 4.16 0.86 0.45 0.35
Excess kurtosis 0.00 17.35 5.16 1.31 2.78
Best day 0.00% 0.03% 0.13% 0.17% 0.46%
Worst day 0.00% -0.00% -0.09% -0.13% -0.37%
Positive days 0 3 9 13 16
Negative days 0 1 6 11 12
Round trips 0 2 5 13 22
Winning / losing trades 0 / 0 2 / 0 5 / 0 13 / 0 22 / 0
Trades per day 0.00 0.07 0.17 0.43 0.73
Win rate 0.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Profit factor 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Payoff ratio 0.00 ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
Expectancy 0.0000 0.1801 0.2656 0.2227 0.2409
Average win 0.0000 0.1801 0.2656 0.2227 0.2409
Average loss 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Average trade 0.0000 0.1801 0.2656 0.2227 0.2409
Max win streak 0 2 5 13 22
Max loss streak 0 0 0 0 0
Time in market 0.00% 6.08% 34.66% 62.96% 78.39%
Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Realised P&L 0.00 0.36 1.33 2.89 5.30
Unrealised P&L 0.00 0.03 -0.21 -1.90 -3.43
Fees paid 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.35 0.85
Fee drag 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.08%
Final equity 1000.00 1000.39 1001.12 1000.99 1001.87

Every number on this page is read from the run record that produced it — the audit pipeline writes the page and the record together, so the two cannot drift apart.

What the guard is, and what a better number under it means. The break-even guard refuses any exit below average entry plus fees. It cannot improve a strategy's judgement — it can only stop it selling at a loss, which means holding the position instead. Across the pack that turns a strategy that churned into one that buys and waits: trade counts collapse and time in market rises towards 100%. In a window where the asset itself rose, that reads as a much better return while being strictly less of a strategy.

So read the return next to round trips, time in market and edge vs buy and hold. The last of those is the one that matters: not one strategy in this matrix beat simply holding the asset, in either run.

Ignore the win rate and the profit factor under the guard. Both count closed trades only, and the guard closes nothing at a loss — in all 101 guarded runs the number of losing closed trades is exactly zero. So the win rate goes to 100% and the profit factor becomes undefined for arithmetic reasons, while the losses sit in the position that is still open. The unrealised row is where they went.